Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas discusses the odds of a Bitcoin Trust ETF. Will it Win Approval? #Podcast

https://assets.bwbx.io/av/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/vVZ9tR.KEoso/v2.mp3

says 33% chance, recent hacks are bad

Do they know something we don't?  Just hitting previously decided exit targets? 

Is there any chance this is something other than bad news?  At least we know they have 20K less BTC to dump on the market all at once right?

My market summary of my thoughts this week

Bitcoin price analysis February 23, 2017

https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/02/23/bitcoin-price-analysis-february-23-2017/

what he is really expecting here is a wave 4 on the 2 hour - 6h chart. It could go down to $900 he says with this TA style, ichimoku cloud.

But i disagree.

I agree it will go down in EWs wave 4 on the fractal, but only as low as $1045 (*not below $1000). B/c It has to respect the top of wave 1.

My point is all great TA looks at stuff differently, and comes to roughly similar conclusions, off by a mark. THere is GREAT, IMMENSE value in applying different techniques to come up with forecastts, targets and most of all, CONFIDENCE!

Now, I am looking at this wave 4/ or Kijun retrace, as part of an ending diagonal wave 5. So we do an ABC down from 3 to 4 (not below $1000)

This fractal below is on the 3d- 1W.

This is ONE form the 5 could take.

It could also spike and go on to form a Head of a H&S pattern that still goes down.

Basically we are watching a form shape up. And boy is it exciting to watch EW at work! WoW!

2 charts

2hour - 6hour chart

And 3d - 1w chart.

diffferent time frames.

2 hour 6 hour



3day 1 week

I am saying this.

In the medium term, we are likely to go down to $700. After a top is hit. This top could be formed out of

a) a head and shoulder
b) a rising ending diagonal wave 5
c) a double top (truncated 5th wave)
d) a flat triple top.

In the event of

a) we break the ATH and go up to a high, a top. Then a correction down, then a right shoulder up, then down to $700

Here it is

b) we break the all time high, form a new high, then retrace 3 waves down to $1000 -$1050, then back up again past the all time high to another high marked (5 or C) on the chart below

Here

Now, the reason i say this is because, if you go down to the lower time frame 2 hour - 6 hour, you can see we are still forming a wave iii, and after that a wave iv retrace. this wave iv is not expected to go below $1000. Then a bounce back up for a wave v.

i am using v instead of 5 to distinguish the fractals on 2 hour and large chart 3 day

i am confident the 2 hour is a iii, iv, v wave unfolding because it is a wave c of a, b, c since $751, after correcting from $1139

see chart here



Finally, if you move up to the 3day and 1 week chart, we can see a larger 5 wave fractal.

$1139 was a wave 3 top, followed by a wave 4 retracement to $754

Here it is



and here is the 5 waves of the C above



Now even here we are forming a wave 5 and is what i am watching to see what form it takes between

a)
b)
c)
d)

Now, we also have information that an ETF decision is expected on or before March 11.

I am expecting it not to be approved.

So i factor it into my analysis and expect the terminal 5 top, before down to precede th ETF announcement, or immediately after

OR another unforseen event

A massive drop down could use a catalyst event.

Thats my current thought