Someone wins a raffle every time the dude pulls a ticket from the bin, bitcoin mining isn't like that.
True, though let's focus a bit more on the analogy of lottery vs raffle.
Every time you increase your nonce and make a hash you have a fixed chance of winning (finding a valid block) regardless of whether everyone else just turned their miners off or if 1000 ASICs just came online. Later (every 2016 blocks) the requirement for a winner will change, but it is always an individual thing in the moment.
So as I understand every nonce increase hash is a lotto ticket. In a lottery the difficulty doesn't change for any one draw. So with a difficulty adjustment this could be equated with a different lotto draw.
I think it is usually assumed that every miner is getting tons of these tickets in proportion to their mining speed, maybe it should be made explicit.
The issue still is that in a lotto draw buying multiple tickets increases your chance of winning but everyone else's probability of winning is unaffected (static winning numbers, prize is divided among winners).
I propose that instead of relying on the lottery analogy that we concentrate on a raffle ticket analogy, where it is crystal clear that the more tickets someone gets the higher chance they have of winning compared to someone who just buys one.
What's the difference between buying lot of raffle tickets and buying lots of lottery tickets?
In an unlimited raffle draw, when you buy tickets other people's chances decrease (static prize, variable entries).
