good publicity for bitcoin legitimacy and longevity .. but i do like to also think of the negatives.. so here goes
i really hope they are not buying rigs at retail prices (bitmain: 4thash being $1000) because $20million($20m= 80petahash) wont be not enough at that rate
(be warned i have made assumptions below based on the $1000 retail price.. read summary before knitpicking profitability)
80peta, which in 3 months would need to be upgraded and expanded due to more hashpower and higher difficulty competing against that 80petahash which slowly dwindles down how much it can earn.
also having just 9% of hashrate today would mean that it would on AVERAGE maybe get a block once every 11 blocks..
(comparison to BW.COM who are 8% and had 4 blocks in the last 44 blocks)
which over 2 weeks is $1,990,000 (($400*25)*199 blocks) out of 2016 blocks (9% of 2 week target)
but the following 2 weeks is $1,790,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $1,600,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $1,450,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $1,300,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $1,150,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
totalling under $9.6million before the equipment becomes obsolete.
so say they spent the 9million to get to 116peta.. and 600k on the electric bill.. knowing the network is now into exohash and the difficulty is 50% higher than 6 difficulty retargets ago..
over 2 weeks is $1,650,000
but the following 2 weeks is $1,480,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $1,350,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $1,200,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $1,080,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
but the following 2 weeks is $970,000 due to hash and difficulty movements
so now another 3 months have passed and the total they have is $7.700,000
so now they only have $7.7m to upgrade their equipment to atleast try to stay on target for 9% of hashrate..
which if 80peta was 9% 6 months ago.. its only 4% in 6 months (116peta is <6% if they did upgrade)
so to get back to 9% they would need a total of nearly 180peta.. which costs 15000 x 4thash units to gain the extra 60petahash ($15m cost)
summary:
if they can get a 4thash rig for $200 they will be ok.. (having 36% hash initially and earning $30mill in first quarter(before costs)) allowing for upgrades and profits.
or $500 a rig to atleast break even and upgrade with a smidgen of profit if done wisely
(potential knitpick rebuttles
i accept that my assumption is based on bitcoins price point of $400 a coin and speculation can say that in 6 months time bitcoin can be $800 each to counter any dwindling bitcoin income by being a higher fiat total.... but also the onramp of these investors getting bitcoin can cause them to want to sell it to get out fiat which can send the price down. so i chose to just stick with $400 as a safe bet to counter both sides of the fence)
