Betting more does not increase the expected value.  Let's use the extremes to test that logic so as to avoid the math. If I bet on every number, what would my highest possible result be?  Lowest result? (H:-12, L: -12)  If I bet on four numbers, what would my highest possible result be? Lowest result? (H:0,L:-4) If I bet on three numbers, what would be my highest possible result? Lowest result? (H:1, L:-3)

Let's make a table for purposes of illustration:

For B=Number of Bets, H=Highest Result, L=Lowest Result

      (Bets 1-4)              (Bets 4-8)               (Bets 9-12)            (Bets 13-16)
B:01, H:03, L:-01,   B:05, H:-01, L:-05   B:09, H:-05, L:-09   B:13, H:-09, L:-13
B:02, H:02, L:-02,   B:06, H:-02, L:-06   B:10, H:-06, L:-10   B:14, H:-10, L:-14
B:03, H:01, L:-03,   B:07, H:-03, L:-06   B:11, H:-07, L:-11   B:15, H:-11, L:-15
B:04,  H:00, L:-04,    B:08, H:-04, L:-08   B:12, H:-08, L:-12   B:16, H:-12, L:-12

Notice that the only quantity of wagers capable of realizing profit are 1, 2, and 3. Also, notice that with one wager you're receiving the highest possible return on your investment, with two wagers you're risking 2 to win 2 with 14:2 odds against (even money prop with a 12.5% chance of success!!!), with 3 wagers you're risking 3 to win 1 with 13:3 odds against.  Most importantly recognize that at four wagers you're risking 4 to win 0 with 12:4 odds against (25% chance to break even, 75% chance to lose 4) and any number of wagers above four guarantees a loss.  Conclusion: the more wagers one places, the more inept one's gambling prowess.

Similar tables can be constructed for 8x return....it might be a fun exercise to compare them; however, the math associated with calculating expected value should be sufficient enough to make sound decisions.

You dint answer this basic Q of mine...

Example (PrimeDice): at default 2x roll; out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house reserves 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49).  So, house edge = 100/10000 = 0.01 = 01%  

To convert the house edge to an expected value divide the house edge by 100. So, if the house edge is 01% (PrimeDice) the EV= 01/100 = -0.01 (note: negation achieved thru the words "house edge")

At 8x, EV = (-15 × 1 ÷ 16) + (7 × 1 ÷ 16) = -0.5  (from example in quote above)

To convert the expected value to the house edge multiply the expected value by 100.  So, as in the above expected value of -0.50, HE = (-0.5) * 100 = 50% house edge.  (note: negation of the negative sign in the identity is accomplished thru the words "house edge" in the translation)

So, Bitcoin Betting Website = 50% house edge (-0.50 EV)
And,                  PrimeDice = 01% house edge (-0.01 EV)

I hope that answers your question.

Conclusion: One would have to be ridiculously inept to play against a 50% house edge when they have the option of playing against a 01% house edge dice site.

Advice: Take the time to evaluate the math before putting your tokens at risk.

We launched with 4x return and then raised it to 8x. Here is the announcement...

mobnepal checked a previous bet and asked about it. The person, who placed the bet, was supposed to receive 4x, as that was the return we were offering initially after launch. Please check the time stamp of the Confirmation Block Hash.

https://blockchain.info/block/000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08

Timestamp   2016-05-30 12:46:56

Now, please check the date of my quote. It is June 01, 2016, i.e. the raise to 8x was made on this day.

Hence, system worked perfectly as expected.

It seems u r mistaken in your calculation.

Example (PrimeDice): At default 2x roll, out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house DOES NOT reserve 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49). Because, player CAN NOT roll both over 50.49 and under 49.50 at a time. Player can bet either over or under at one roll. Hence, at any certain roll, house reserves 5100 possibilities for themselves.

So, according to your calculation, PrimeDice house edge = 5100/10000 = 0.51 = 51%, whereas Bitcoin Betting Website house edge is 50%.

Please correct me if I am wrong...

Yes. I am talking about none other than the reservoir, i.e. house, holding here. Out of 10000 possibilities, house holds 5100 possibilities at any certain roll (over or under). Your mistake is, you are considering over or under as over and under, which is giving you a false depiction of only 100 possibilities for house. That is untrue. House holding is 5100 possibilities, whereas players holding is 4900 possibilities at any certain roll (over or under).

Please go through my logic carefully, before arriving at a conclusion.


FTFY. Now, you have come up with a new formula to explain EDGE, which is different than the previous.

According to your previous formula, the corrected value of house edge for PrimeDice was 51%. Still, I would like to see how you apply your new formula to Bitcoin Betting Website, as the operating mechanism appears different for this game than an average dice site.

Going by this formula of yours, in the case of Bitcoin Betting Website, the house probability is 50% and the player probability is 50%, so the difference is 0% <- that is the "edge."

When house reserves 100 numbers and 9900 other possibilities are distributed equally 4950 for the house and 4950 to the player, then obviously house reserve becomes (4950 + 100) = 5050. I'm not sure, what is stopping you from seeing this crystal clear reasoning!

Love your "on chain" concept. It's a more trustable and easily verifiable method of gambling, so you don't put all your trust into that "probably fair" script. Also love your UI!