This is my take on the situation:
a) Liqui is a relatively new, low population, untrusted exchange. Having said that, the price is holding-up better there.
b) Kraken is a a weird exchange with crappy charts and odd pairings that, despite having good volume, has a different kind of buyer who is much more cautious. Many people will be waiting for a more mainstream exchange which doesn't require verification. I myself have not bought coins because of the hassle of the exchange.
c) Volume is low. Until there is significant trading the price will be unpredictable.
d) Weak hands will be selling at the moment, hopefully they will dry up soon.
e) The BTC network is in a mess right now.
f) By rights, ICN should have a market cap around the same as Lisk or higher, in my opinion.
g) The amount of tokens on exchanges is very small, just a few percent. That's a good sign, it means the vast majority are hodling (refer to point d).
h) The fundamentals have not changed. It's a good idea backed-up by a good team following a smooth launch and with a huge pile of BTC to fund the development and another huge pile of BTC for the trading fund.
Obviously it could still go to shit, but I doubt it.
Edit:
i) And this post just got me "hero" status... the omens are good.
Good points. Kraken is primarily used by people trading fiat. In fact, remove the fiat trading pairs, and the daily volume is only 3300 BTC. It's not a place I think of when I think huge buy support and volume for apptoken.
Bittrex is all altcoin trading with 2240 BTC daily volume
Poloniex has 24101 BTC daily volume from altcoin trading
Poloniex also has the biggest order books. 7MM+ ETH and 80k+ BTC on the exchange, which all goes towards altcoin trading pairs
The party will really get started if poloniex lists ICN
Price pump requires whales willing to pump. Organic pump is non existent. Exchange is secondary thing.
A lot of whales are not going to be so fast to move their money from poloniex. They just play whatever is offered there. Random coins like potcoin get 1000 btc on the buy side all the time on poloniex. 3000+ BTC on orderbook for FCT, 8000+ BTC for XMR. Poloniex is the only exchange where this is happening with altcoins.
I'm literally willing to bet orderbook gets 1000+ BTC depth if ICN is listed on poloniex.
It would be a whole different ballgame than this 30 BTC orderbook on Kraken.
Coin selection for pump is never random. It takes considerable planning, figuring out coin allocation between major holders, off exchange trades, a team of shills and above all lot of time (3 months to a year). Look at Waves, it is pumping all right without polo. STEEM was pumped on Bittrex too. Gulden pump on bittrex was also epic without polo.
Yes there are lot more traders on polo than bittrex and that does help the pump gain more traction but that is not the primary motivator for a pump.
