http://bitcoinmagazine.com/coinsetter-will-a-better-virtual-currency-make-bitcoin-obsolete/Building my first startup in the highly competitive online ticketing industry taught me a lot about who wins and loses in a changing environment. Many people in the tech world suggest that all you need to do in order to attract customers is to build a great product and users will naturally come. While building a great product is vital, its not the whole story. All around us, we see large, imperfect companies dominating their market while new entrants with theoretically better products never quite gain traction. Many entrepreneurs rely upon this create a better product strategy and never understand why users arent willing to leave their old product for the shiny new thing. With many people questioning if Bitcoin is the best implementation of virtual currency, I can already see parallels in comparing Bitcoin with other options. The answer to whether Bitcoin is the long term winner in this race is actually quite clear.
First, most people would admit that Bitcoin is not perfect. The 10 minute confirmation time is not optimal for quick transactions. The 51% attack is still a looming risk. Then theres the huge amount of energy wasted in the mining process not great from an environmental standpoint. Im not the first person to point these issues out, and in response, many people have already released other virtual currencies that aim to improve upon the movement that Bitcoin has started. Litecoin, Ripple, PPCoin, Feathercoin, BBQcoin and others all claim to be a better virtual currency, and their proponents are just waiting for bitcoiners to flock over. BBQcoin is obviously the most delicious of the virtual currencies and way more delicious than Bitcoin, but what would need to happen for it to truly rival Bitcoin?
I think it helps to take a step back and ask why a lot of Bitcoins imperfections exist in the first place. These imperfections were not oversights by its core developers; they were expected byproducts of thoughtful decisions that they made. For instance, the 51% attack is only possible because of the extremely distributed nature of the mining structure that makes Bitcoin unstoppable by groups that would limit it. A system like Ripple reduces this particular risk and uses far less energy in the process, but by using trusted gateways as the basis for making confirmations, it is prone to government manipulation. Though I believe Ripple as a technology is needed and will be successful, I see its form inevitably becoming influenced by the government. Bitcoin companies will have to play ball with regulation, but the currency itself will hold its ability to force desired change in world.
Beyond imperfections, Bitcoin has an attribute that will solidify its place as the only viable virtual currency: Bitcoins use as an IP address for money. While closed payment networks will initially be apprehensive to accept Bitcoin transfers, they will find that they must accept out-of-network Bitcoin transfers or become obsolete. Within the next five years, almost all closed payment networks will have an input for your Bitcoin address, turning them into open payment networks that can accept money from anyone. However, you wont find two inputs on these apps for your Bitcoin and Litecoin address. Bitcoin is the only virtual currency that has sufficient adoption to become the standard. If you want to know how this story unfolds, I encourage you to read the history of the Internet and TCP/IP.
Further solidifying Bitcoin as the only viable virtual currency, wider adoption will lead to increased switching costs. Once a company, product or in this case, a currency takes dominance in an industry, people dont tend to leave it for something with low value improvements. This happens, firstly, because people find comfort in familiar things and dont become compelled to try something new unless the benefit is overwhelmingly obvious. Bitcoin already has far wider adoption than any of its alternatives and has substantially more infrastructure being built around it. Second is track record. For as bad as a product is perceived to be, proven good enough reliability goes a long way against unproven alternatives. Bitcoins four years of success in the face of hackers and growing transaction volumes builds confidence. Finally, Bitcoin has very social roots. Given the value now associated with the word Bitcoin, it is very unlikely that another virtual currency will match its caché in the next five years.
So will a better virtual currency make Bitcoin obsolete? The answer is very clear to me. Bitcoin isnt perfect, but it doesnt have to be in order to fend off competitors and remain the worlds dominant virtual currency. An understanding of this notion presents an opportunity for people that understand it today. Until traders widely realize that Bitcoin is here for good, there will be a lot of untapped value in Bitcoins market price. The currencys longevity will become obvious over time and be reflected in prices down the road, so eat your BBQcoins, sell your PPcoins, and go buy some Bitcoins before theyre back at $200!
About the Author
Jaron Lukasiewicz is the CEO and Founder of Coinsetter, a New York City-based company that offers a high performance levered trading platform for Bitcoin. Prior to Coinsetter, Jaron was the Co-Founder of Ticketometer, a social media-focused online ticketing platform. Previously, Jaron was an Associate at The CapStreet Group, a Houston-based private equity firm; an investment banker at J.P. Morgan and Madison Williams in their global investment banking groups; and began his career as a summer analyst at SPB Partners, a Las Vegas-based private equity firm.
Jaron graduated from Rice University on the Presidents Honor Roll with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese. He is a frequent speaker at events on the topic of Bitcoin and financial technology and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, TechCrunch, Mashable, Entrepreneur, Forex Magnates and other news media.
One of the most biased articles I've ever read. Bitcoin isn't anything like TCP. It's more like the search engine. TCP/IP became standard because there was no other way to build an Internet at the time. Bitcoin already has competitors prior to it even reaching 1.0.
Bitcoin is more like Napster or Yahoo, where when Yahoo first came along there was excite! but the Internet was very small and there was no Google. Google came along and all that first move advantage stuff didn't help Yahoo or excite!. Napster had first mover advantage but was attacked by opposition because it was first, and this could very easily and probably is happening to Bitcoin.
All the press goes directly to Bitcoin. Litecoin only receives the good press.
This will change over time but this is how it currently is. At the same time we have to consider this an opportunity, if there isn't a lot of infrastructure for Litecoin or Netcoin then nothing stops us from building it. Nothing stops sites from accepting an array of alt currencies and when enough people like an alt currency people will switch their sites to support it in addition to Bitcoin.
To say Bitcoin will be the only virtual currency is like saying MasterCard will be the only credit card to ever be accepted on the Internet. That turned out not to be true, not only that but the Internet used to have us dial 1900 numbers to pay membership fees, then we have to give out credit card numbers, but Paypal ultimately made things convenient.
So in my opinion the best sort of software to develop for Netcoin would be software to make using Netcoin convenient. Ubiquitous chrome and firefox extensions, APIs, and of course petition for integration into Payswarm.
When I can easily plug Netcoin functionalities into my source code then it will be used by me. This means Netcoin will need exquisite developer support cross platform APIs, interface with scripting languages like Python and languages like Visual Basic, so that people don't need to deal with C++ to use the functionality of Netcoin, and interface it with Javascript.
I think if it becomes easy to set up a site and start a Netcoin operated business then the market cap will grow. So what kind of software would need to be developed so you, me or anyone can say "I want to start a Netcoin business", and have the templates all set up? This way any one of us could start a business the same day and have the site up the same day taking in coins.
My idea was to go with the Tubes. I suggested it for PPcoin and said let's make PPTube but the idea got laughed out as being too ahead of it's time. But I think those are the kinds of ideas which will build market cap so I suggest NetTube and to make it simple to make Tubes which run on Netcoin it would be best to create an open source Tube site template so anyone can pay a service provider to set up the Tube site for them for a fee under any domain name they want and people can simply upload their videos while other people pay per view those videos.
I don't see why we cannot make a market place around templates and web services, services for startups to streamline the process and charge Netcoin's exclusively for these services.