Just to elaborate -

Here's an example of the kind of calculations I'm running (this is for a single board - you can multiply it up - same answer but more so):
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/0d1bb81811
Hash power: 5.6gh/s
Power use: 15w
Cost of hardware: (we want to know whether it's worth a refund, so)
- chips: 0.078*16*$120 per btc (i.e. full refund in btc) -> $150
- assembly: c.$100 per board, 50% refund, plus $30 for shipping (full refund) -> $80
Total: $200

Even for overclocked boards (with burnins going for EUR 105):
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/0af9373781
Hash power: 9
Power: 20w
Cost
-chips 0.078*16*120 per btc -> $234
-assembly (in usd) 140 -> $70 refund
total $300

In both cases you're in the red, and by the end of 12m it gets worse not better. So if you're "paying" your refund to get those boards, your ROI is negative, therefore it makes sense to take the refund (assuming you can get 50% refund from assemblers). That is, unless you believe the difficulty projections are bunk, or my other assumptions are BS (if so, please let me know, because I'm basing my decision on these!!)

This also assumes that there's no other delays, you boards aren't broken in the mail (some of burnins customers have had this already with batch 1 chips), no config problems etc.

Even if you get them a bit earlier, you're in the red deep enough that a refund always wins at this stage.

Not possible to sustain, for HOW long? If your chips showed up assembled and hashing TODAY, you might break even and make a little money, but we're WELL past the anticipated delivery time with ZERO progress since the order date. What makes you think that the chips will deliver any time soon?

You guys are clinging to a false hope at this point. As others have pointed out and demonstrated, either way we're going to take a loss. You can either take a loss that also involved giving the assholes who screwed us a ton of money, and just bending over for them, or you can take the option of telling companies that this won't be tolerated, and work on finding another viable investment.

Honestly, anybody who chooses option A is a fool, and Yifu's bitch.

*WHAT* OTHER VIABLE INVESTMENT?

there is NOT A SINGLE ONE THAT LOOKS ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS THIS ONE FUCKING DID.  BEST CASE ROI WAS UNDER A MONTH

Obviously that was super-optimistic, but that was best case.  Expected case was supposed to be a few months for ROI.  Now it's never?

Run the numbers of anything else, your BEST CASE ROI is on the order of half a year,  what happens when THAT gets fucked over?  Do you think you won't get screwed over by another company, group, or person?

You run the numbers on a "refund", and stop doing shitty wrong calculations with never-ending hashrates being added (again, it's a fucking sigma curve not an exponential, all hardware is paid for.  Do you see people spending money on new hardware anymore?)

Something like 50,000,000$ was sent to BFL

Then 8,000,000$ was sent to Avalon chips.

The guys coming in later?  Less than that.

The money  invested is an inverse-sigmoid curve.  The hashrate is a sigmoid curve

Although I appreciate the wonderful sentiment, I'd prefer that we act like adults here.

I personally don't believe the recent hashrate spike is sustainable. I think it will level off and then progress linearly. A few months ago many predicted difficulty would be over 100 million in July based on exponential extrapolation alone. Soon after it leveled off. People speculate a lot here, and are usually wrong. I'm probably wrong too, but to have an x-petahash difficulty in December would require way too much capital and gives mining companies too much credit. Fact is we live in a cyclical, imperfect world and its not as easy as putting numbers into an equation. I recall reading somewhere that predicting difficulty with any accuracy is a fool's errand; I tend to agree.

Given the recent price bump and good press, it's possible the window may not have shut on profitability completely, but it's closing quickly. We need these chips very soon, or I'll be on the refund bandwagon too. (I'm not paying assembly costs so I'm willing to give it more time.) As others have pointed out it will be easy enough to buy cheaper chips elsewhere, however to take that additional gamble I need proof that Yifu is processing refunds quickly AND that prodigits/ragingazn will be on the ball to promptly refund everyone in the group buy the proper amounts.

We're not quite there.... yet.

We also have no evidence yet of how quickly those refunds will be processed.  If we opt for refund, many will be left with no chips and no btc for who knows how long.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overshoot_(signal)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overshoot_(population)

I disagree. We are gonna hit breakeven for ASICs... and then go beyond,  as people keep their pre-ordered hardware running in a doomed attempt to recoup investment.

Also - I'd rather take 50% refund than struggle for no return. This requires effort and none of you guys are considering the cost of the labor of actually running the ASICs.

128 chips voting for refund. Apologies to those wanting to stick it out, but I at least have to try to cut my losses.

I've only got 20 chips worth of say.  Do what you will.   

Hmm.. that is true, refund would only need JohnK to act (with whatever critera, probably 51% of chips..)

I have pm'd JohnK to see what is possible but he is moving this week and will probably only catch up with this thread and his PMs on his return (on Tuesday 3rd September)

I appreciate your consideration. I won't be seeking a refund, though I realize that may simply be due to the amount I've invested into this emotionally. Please make your own decision based on what you think is best for you.

Also, for those of you going through my assembly service, I've just posted in our thread regarding refunds: https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/203388.msg3047235#msg3047235

The TL;DR: Full refunds are out of the question, but I'll see what I can do in the way of partial refunds for those of you who want them.