As I said I believe $50 is going to be the very bottom - and we already touched it the 6th of April. I'd expect revisiting that point during the summer, but nevertheless I acknowledge that every day that passes without breaking $79, this prediction goes further away. Just keep in mind that this game is played mid to long term, and everybody in here is looking at the very short term. I make my investment/trading decisions mid term, most of the times I don't even trade more than once every two weeks. There are times (like two weeks ago) were I feel playful and I do some daytrading, but I treat it much like gamble - as soon as I'm ahead, I quit, and I go back to investing with the vast majority of my position, while I trade only with play money.
I respect your opinion.
Personally i'd rate the chance to see 50$ again as a 50% 50%. I'd rate 266$, or tossing a coin the same.
I mean it
can happen, but in my opinion simply there's not enough evidence
now to prefer such a scenario to other ones, even on long term.
Especially since going once to 50$ does not exclude going once to 266$ for instance, before or after that.
EDIT: wonder why we're not spiking to 112$ ...
