interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.
People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.
Because having 1,000 coins is very different to having 500 coins.
Hitting the very bottom is pure luck, but buying 50% lower than you sold is quite achievable in a Bitcoin bear market.
OK, let's run with your assertion.
There are three broad groups: First, holders who haven't sold yet... If they haven't sold at $65, they're unlikely to do it at $50, $32, or whatever the fashionable number is. If forum melodrama about capitulation were going to affect them, it would have happened already.
Then there are people who sold and are waiting for cheap coins. We can assume that most of these people sold well above $100 -- many passed the bag over at $160. These people would double their holdings by getting in between $65 and now. Provided they get in in time. Sure enough, that's where the recent volume came from.
The third group is speculators who will ride each wave in either direction. For the purposes of this thought experiment, they aren't very relevant.
The subset of people who sold much lower and later is likely smaller an less significant than the above groups.
I'm not going to say for sure that the bottom is in -- markets take time to turn -- but it shouldn't be surprising to anyone if it is. The absolute certainty with which bears bay for blood after we're already more than 70% off the peak valuation just magnifies their folly, and is very similar to bulls' behaviour near the peak. The volatility has already been sufficient to redistribute coins appropriately.
Bear in mind also that all this is against a background of increasing investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and start ups. Overall the baseline non-speculative value is constantly increasing.
Good points. I do wonder about group 1 though. They now have the realization of the violence of the moves and probably a lot of them read the forums and we all see the amount of people yelling for $50 coins. And if they see the price starting to go down, I do wonder if they start to sell. The amount of coins they have is huge. Even a small percentage of them selling (which is reasonable) would affect the move down.
There are probably a lot of people who have been buying in through all of this and who have loose hands. If the price gets much lower than current prices, I don't doubt they sell.
Also, I think there are probably quite a few other scenarios that can take place but we'll see how this all ends up. Speculating is sort of fun.
I guess, for me, the idea is not to get greedy (Make use of my abilities and try to increase my position with moves in and out since my funds are very limited). As Rampion said, don't try to call the absolute bottom, but if you can pick up more coins even within 50% of it, that is beneficial. And if we buy higher then hopefully lesson learned (though I still have a cushion).
Those big buyers and sellers have certainly shown us this market can move violently and we should never lose sight of that.
IAS
