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    Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26870435 times)
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    • thoughtfan
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    July 30, 2013, 10:52:32 PM
     #25841
    Hi guys, been part-time lurking for some time now but finally got something to say Smiley

    Just a thanks really to all who have been buying bitcoin to stash away right through the downtrend.  I'm not saying the downtrend is necessarily done but I'm not finding the arguments of those reckoning on $20-30 etc. persuasive - largely because they appear to be on the basis of repeating patterns and TA - and I just don't buy either for this unique bitcoin market.  However, I've enjoyed guessing for the fun of it where the price is going to go and when and would have done OK buying fiat to sell again at a profit had I not been primarily a 'buy-and-hold' man myself.

    But what I haven't been doing during this period is putting new fiat in and have therefore accumulated a fair bit ready to buy back in when I'm reasonably confident the downtrend is over.  I'm actually enjoying watching the price go up even though I'm not on board (with the new money), fine to let those who are prepared to take the higher risk try and catch the bottom and initial turnaround to get the cheapest prices whilst I stand aside prepared to pay more for additional confidence we've not got (much) further down to go.

    So keep up the good work folks and maybe in another couple of weeks if this carries on I'll be ready for 'all in'* again Smiley

    In the meantime here are the latest from my favourite table and chart:





    On the former I'm liking even on a reasonable volume day gox is not commanding much more than 30% of the trade.  On the latter I'm liking this week's USD volume to date is already equal to last week's.  I'm guessing last week will have been the bottom for volume for some time.

    L8r Smiley

    *within reason

  • ShroomsKit
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    July 30, 2013, 10:54:43 PM
     #25842
    Quote from: byronbb on July 30, 2013, 10:51:30 PM
    Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 30, 2013, 10:49:43 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 10:41:33 PM
    You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

    Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

    Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
    How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?




    He made millions the 1 time he was right and lost only 10cents the other hundred times.

    Obviously. Just like Rampion. Totally wrong with his claims but "everything is going according to plan and i made money".

  • cedivad
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    July 30, 2013, 10:54:59 PM
     #25843
    Now the question will be:
    What kind of rally can be triggered from an exchange that is paying maybe 10% of the withdraws?
    Why do people keep having trust in it?

  • ElectricMucus
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    July 30, 2013, 10:58:08 PM
     #25844
    ShroomsKit is kind of cute.

  • N12
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    July 30, 2013, 10:58:50 PM
     #25845
    Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 30, 2013, 10:58:08 PM
    ShroomsKit is kind of cute.
    He sure is. His entire purpose in this forum is getting pissed at me. Cheesy

    Honest question Shroom, have you traded at all, as in buying and selling? Huh

  • ChartBuddy
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    July 30, 2013, 11:01:05 PM
     #25846

  • thoughtfan
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    July 30, 2013, 11:01:08 PM
     #25847
    Quote from: cedivad on July 30, 2013, 10:54:59 PM
    Now the question will be:
    What kind of rally can be triggered from an exchange that is paying maybe 10% of the withdraws?
    Why do people keep having trust in it?
    Ah, and this is another reason for my not jumping back in yet.  That's a story I've not been following closely.  Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?  There was a thread that was suggesting gox has been spending depositors' money and doesn't have funds to pay out all withdrawals.  Is this generally considered to be conspiracy theory type paranoia or is there a reasonable chance gox could be in trouble?  Even though I'm using local trades for purchasing for some time because of potential impact on price I'd rather be more confident on this one too prior to putting a chunk more money into bitcoin.

  • N12
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    July 30, 2013, 11:02:36 PM
     #25848
    Quote from: thoughtfan on July 30, 2013, 11:01:08 PM
    Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?
    To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.

    Quote from: thoughtfan on July 30, 2013, 11:01:08 PM
    There was a thread that was suggesting gox has been spending depositors' money and doesn't have funds to pay out all withdrawals.  Is this generally considered to be conspiracy theory type paranoia or is there a reasonable chance gox could be in trouble?
    I doubt it, personally I trust MtGox the most, but that's just me. From what I gathered, it's banks hesitant dealing with MtGox that's the trouble.

  • notme
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    July 30, 2013, 11:04:21 PM
     #25849
    Quote from: cedivad on July 30, 2013, 10:54:59 PM
    Now the question will be:
    What kind of rally can be triggered from an exchange that is paying maybe 10% of the withdraws?
    Why do people keep having trust in it?

    It turns out buying bitcoins makes it easier to withdrawal Tongue.

  • cedivad
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    July 30, 2013, 11:08:49 PM
     #25850
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 11:02:36 PM
    Quote from: thoughtfan on July 30, 2013, 11:01:08 PM
    Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?
    To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.
    What about this thread?
    https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/179586.400
    There are more of the same tone in the category.

    I still don't understand why the spread is little if the problem exist, but it could be for several reasons.

    We will see, I personally have time.

  • thoughtfan
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    July 30, 2013, 11:09:34 PM
     #25851
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 11:02:36 PM
    Quote from: thoughtfan on July 30, 2013, 11:01:08 PM
    Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?
    To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.
    Thanks Blitz.  I was guessing from the percentage differences (look at today's 9-11%+ on my earlier post) that there is significant delay making arbing impractical.  However, that is of lesser concern to me than the risk this may be an indication of gox potentially in big trouble.  What's word-on-the-street about that?

    Edit:  just seen your post and link cedivad, thanks Smiley

  • notme
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    July 30, 2013, 11:12:02 PM
     #25852
    Quote from: thoughtfan on July 30, 2013, 11:09:34 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 11:02:36 PM
    Quote from: thoughtfan on July 30, 2013, 11:01:08 PM
    Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?
    To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.
    Thanks Blitz.  I was guessing from the percentage differences (look at today's 9-11%+ on my earlier post) that there is significant delay making arbing impractical.  However, that is of lesser concern to me than the risk this may be an indication of gox potentially in big trouble.  What's word-on-the-street about that?

    Some streets claim the sky is falling.  Some streets claim they will rape your cat.  Some streets claim they got withdrawals without issue and have provided screenshots to quell the mob.  Personally, I'm not worried.  But then again, I have no need to withdrawal fiat from Gox since all my trading on their platform is attempting to make btc profit.

  • N12
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    July 30, 2013, 11:15:21 PM
     #25853
    If you trust Mark Karpeles, I have it from him that the banks are hesitant of dealing with MtGox because of the legal crap (Dwolla, etc.) Currently they're processing 1.2 million USD per week because their small bank (which is a new one) limits them, but there's a backlog and it's been growing, so unless they get new banks in due time, it will take a while until it begins decreasing and it's worked off.

    I don't believe MtGox are scammers and judging from the fact that the other exchanges do follow MtGox's movements, apparently neither does the market. Everyone needs to judge on his own though.

  • hlynur
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    July 30, 2013, 11:17:16 PM
     #25854
    Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 30, 2013, 10:49:43 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 10:41:33 PM
    You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

    Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

    Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
    How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?

    i don't want to take side in whatever you two have going on.
    but everytime Blitz is posting i expect a quote from you just because i got used to it.
    the hero member status is by no means a badge for complete reliability, but it's good to see the perspective of people that are around this place for such a long time.
    When I read through your post history with the ongoing fixation on Blitz and take the time in consideration you registered here... Undecided

    after all this is a speculation thread so you don't have to take every word with a grain of salt.

  • notme
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    July 30, 2013, 11:18:53 PM
     #25855
    Quote from: hlynur on July 30, 2013, 11:17:16 PM
    Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 30, 2013, 10:49:43 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 10:41:33 PM
    You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

    Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

    Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
    How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?

    i don't want to take side in whatever you two have going on.
    but everytime Blitz is posting i expect a quote from you just because i got used to it.
    the hero member status is by no means a badge for complete reliability, but it's good to see the perspective of people that are around this place for such a long time.
    When I read through your post history with the ongoing fixation on Blitz and take the time in consideration you registered here... Undecided

    after all this is a speculation thread so you don't have to take every word with a grain of salt.

    ShroomsKit has been upset lately.  I hope whatever is bothering him gets better.

  • thoughtfan
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    July 30, 2013, 11:20:55 PM
     #25856
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 11:15:21 PM
    If you trust Mark Karpeles, I have it from him that the banks are hesitant of dealing with MtGox because of the legal crap (Dwolla, etc.) Currently they're processing 1.2 million USD per week because their small bank (which is a new one) limits them, but there's a backlog and it's been growing, so unless they get new banks in due time, it will take a while until it begins decreasing and it's worked off.

    I don't believe MtGox are scammers and judging from the fact that the other exchanges do follow MtGox's movements, apparently neither does the market. Everyone needs to judge on his own though.

    Thanks Blitz (& notme) for your assessment of the situation.  Needless to say my own assessment of the risk is what will have to count with my own decision as to whether and when to come back in but I do appreciate the heads up for those who have been following more closely so that my decision can be that bit more informed Smiley

    Edit: oh and look, my 'Activity'* score is equal to BTC's ATH Smiley

    * whatever 'activity' actually means - I don't think I can be bothered to find out but I guess it's an algorithm that helps active newcomers catch up quicker with lazier old-timers or medium-timers such as me Smiley

  • notme
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    July 30, 2013, 11:25:35 PM
     #25857
    Quote from: Gatekeeper on July 30, 2013, 11:22:51 PM
    I mentioned earlier it took 15 full days for my deposit to hit Gox, which made me shit myself as it was a large amount and i realised they could scam me or they could collapse at any time and i'd be totally screwed. But in their defence my bank did contact the Japanese bank to trace the funds and the reply i got back from my bank is that the funds had been credited to the account on the 25th, which was the day that Gox credited my account. So it may well be true that their bank is the one screwing them over, my banks said 3 business days to arrive but it took 11 business days for them to credit the account so I have no idea what is up with that, it's a corporate bank you'd think they could do better than 11 days.


    And people wonder why bitcoin is valuable Roll Eyes.

  • ElectricMucus
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    July 30, 2013, 11:30:01 PM
     #25858
    Quote from: notme on July 30, 2013, 11:25:35 PM
    Quote from: Gatekeeper on July 30, 2013, 11:22:51 PM
    I mentioned earlier it took 15 full days for my deposit to hit Gox, which made me shit myself as it was a large amount and i realised they could scam me or they could collapse at any time and i'd be totally screwed. But in their defence my bank did contact the Japanese bank to trace the funds and the reply i got back from my bank is that the funds had been credited to the account on the 25th, which was the day that Gox credited my account. So it may well be true that their bank is the one screwing them over, my banks said 3 business days to arrive but it took 11 business days for them to credit the account so I have no idea what is up with that, it's a corporate bank you'd think they could do better than 11 days.


    And people wonder why bitcoin is valuable Roll Eyes.

    As long as the value is expressed as a USD figure it's doubt not wonder for me.

  • solex
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    July 30, 2013, 11:32:04 PM
     #25859
    The hash rate is going mental but this does not seem to bother the fx rate. I suspect that the next halving will occur mid-2016 instead of end-2016, and this acceleration is already priced in by the market.

    Blocks Mined   200.00
    Time Between Blocks   7.20 (minutes)
    Bitcoins Mined   5,000 BTC
    Difficulty   31,256,960.73
    Hash Rate   310,758.39 GH/s
    https://blockchain.info/stats

  • ShroomsKit
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    July 30, 2013, 11:32:45 PM
     #25860
    Quote from: hlynur on July 30, 2013, 11:17:16 PM
    Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 30, 2013, 10:49:43 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on July 30, 2013, 10:41:33 PM
    You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

    Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

    Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
    How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?

    i don't want to take side in whatever you two have going on.
    but everytime Blitz is posting i expect a quote from you just because i got used to it.
    the hero member status is by no means a badge for complete reliability, but it's good to see the perspective of people that are around this place for such a long time.
    When I read through your post history with the ongoing fixation on Blitz and take the time in consideration you registered here... Undecided

    after all this is a speculation thread so you don't have to take every word with a grain of salt.

    He is a moderator. Which is crazy. He has no place on this forum as mod.
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