You are right. I may add that price is far above long term, already exponential, growth line (around $80), and returns this year are now equally high as 2011 year (1300%). I would think that percentage increases must go down over time as market cap goes up, so indeed: risky.

However, it is possible that adoption, and price, follow an S curve and that we are now in the first curve where adoption, and price, actually go up faster and faster. This means the uprise of 2013 would be considerably stronger percentage wise, not weaker as the similar 2011 rise.

In case of doubt choose for the side of safety. Question is, from which perspective: that bitcoin is money, or fiat is money?

That's my analysis, after looking at several scenarios. But with bitcoin I can't be truly sure about the future moves of the market.
Just wait a bit, maybe the Chinese will overturn the normal wave pattern. If enough fiat enters their exchanges, and more panic buy follows, it may be possible.

400+ bid wall up

You're actually supporting my point.  

#1 is the time delay you mentioned.  We really don't know what the incoming money will look like, be it flood or trickle.  Traders have been proven time and again to not have any ability to tell the future than anyone else so they cannot "price in" anything.

#2 people won't buy anything the first time they hear of bitcoin.  The odds of them starting up increases with sustained and interesting news articles.  No one here yesterday thought the bitcoin-buying-apartment story would be front page reddit material today.  Who knows what news will come out tomorrow.  Will the price go up $100 because this creates a ripple that will eventually catch the eye of some uber whale? I dunno. The "traders" don't either.  

EDIT: Though, if we really are talking about the news from a month ago, then I could accept that the price could be mostly set in.  I'm talking more about this general surge of news we're experiencing now.

That's what I am arguing against and, from my perspective is what you are arguing FOR but just saying X=Right now



The premise here is one I don't buy and that's speculators alone determine price.  I believe that speculators have 0 actual knowledge and just flail about and react more irrationally then they'd like you to believe.  I know this isn't a popular opinion here and wont' bother arguing it


No, of course there are a lot more forces at play then JUST this linear process and I'm taking the idea of being "priced in" in a much longer term view than I think you are.  The ripples from any single news spread out and can have larger reactions than just the immediate future.  It seems to me that the idea of "priced in" that you are trying to define is by definition whatever the price is right now and that just doesn't seem useful to discuss.  

For example, prior to the reward halving when the price was still like 7ish there were people saying that the halving was already "priced in" and the minute the halving happened and the price didn't instantly double they said "told you so it was already priced in!" In my opinion, the slow price increase that followed the month or two after is a result of this halving and it just had a delayed effect.  

We are in real uncharted territory with bitcoin and we really don't know what events will have what impacts.  Even the most experienced trader (who can hardly handle real markets) has no prayer of accurately predicting pricing.  

It seems pretty obvious, at least to me, that new users coming in and purchasing BTC pushes the price up.  These new users just buy.  They don't ask "uhh but I guess I shouldn't buy, my future buy has already been priced in by others!"

This does induce bubbles (overbuying).

Where are all the 'chumps' who buy at the ATH+ going to come from ?

Good point.  Clearly no ATH should ever be surpassed, in any market..