Just had an interesting discussion about bitcoin with a guy I just met. Fascinating. He's well versed and seems to get it fully, yet thinks governments won't allow it. No "oh, you out smarted us!" or such. He may be right. Yet he acknowledged it couldn't be shut down, just outlawed.
Who else is ok with bitcoin being "just" an underground thing, eh?
I tend to agree with him.
As much as I would like to see crypto be the catalyst for a new, fairer economic system I think the 'fiat is dead' crowd is somewhat deluded. Power traditionally comes from the point of a knife/barrel of a gun and the idea that govts will just let their economic authority be undermined flies in the face of human history.
Of course, what has happened in Germany, with BTC adoption there, is a counter for this argument.
It will boil down to "what's in it for us" and "can we control it". If the current global hegemony can continue their control, they will let the masses use fava beans for currency for all they care.
I think it's an issue of political capital. The government won't be interested in fighting crypto unless they're convinced the "harm it will bring" exceeds the difficulty of cracking down on it, AND that they can convince the general public that it is indeed worth fighting.
Theoretically an autocratic government shouldn't like a free internet, but that's been broadly permitted. Arguments against it are very weak in what is at least supposed to be a free society.
As long as Bitcoin moderates its appearance, it can be a powerful tool toward decentralization of money. It doesn't attack the existing system; it creates a new one. It is much harder for government "reprisals" to appear justified if there is no violation of the standing rules.
