Manipulators, manipulators everywhere 

Hehe, so strange to see rampion bullish at 120 

I'm a bull long term, but short term I expected this bubble to capitulate further down as per Slippery Slope. Anyhow, after the last sell off to $80 (I expected going down to at least $60ish), I'm starting to think that visiting again $80 or below is unlikely, which of course contraddicts the strategy I decided to follow after April, 10th. The fact is that it looks like all the sellers already made their big sell offs. I'm still not going all in, I still keep my bids all the way down, I still think that the $90 to $120 rally we had during the weekend was a joke... But somehow I'm starting to realize that bears are running low of ammo, I kinda feel it.

Even in multi-player zero-sum games there may be significant advantages to players, i.e. win-win situations, resulting from the sharing of noisy or misleading information.

I am here because I believe that what I learn helps me to multiply my bitcoins. I do not believe that what I say meaningfully affects the bitcoin exchange market, and the criticism my ideas receive is easier to accept than lessons taught solely by the market.

Believing that what we say in this thread can talk the price up or down is delusional.

We may have a couple of delusional guys in here who think they can manipulate the price with their talk, but we all know that's not happening

Yeah the pattern is confirming it as well. Much easier to go above 200 than it is to go below 70.

Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.

@SlipperySlope:

You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring:

The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction.

The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards".

I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.

I wonder the same thing. The one idea that needs out attention is that the crash of 2011 was when BTC was basically unknown (relative to now). It is much easier to have happen what happened. Factor into the new crash the low amount of BTC's in existence and increasing awareness of BTC, most notably China and even the US over the last few months. I too don't outright disagree with what others are saying but we have some pretty knowledgeable guys mixed on opinions and someone will be judged to be correct. Pretty hard to call correctly what we see happening as BTC is also Geo-Political and on the radar in more ways than most of us imagine imo.

IAS