My intent here was not to discuss other topics, but this is of prime importance. .........
I did read your whole post, and you are kind of meandering between decently good ideas and demonstrated knowledge of some of the trade-offs.. but you seem to come to quite a few problematic conclusions too, especially including ways that on a personal level you might be able to balance your willingness to take risks (and some of your disinclinations to personally manage it) and some of your strong ideological views which sometimes point out truths - but still does not necessarily lead you to proper risk management strategies...
Your fucking wordiness competition style kind of reminds me of nullius - and in the end you guys trying to compete with this cat do not seem to be able to muster up enough long-term stamina, even though you provide some decent short-term runs.. ..
... so sometimes nullius also had some pretty fucking decent ideas - and maybe some ideology that was too strong, but I really doubt that nullius would be playing around with margin.. though sure - people change too, and sometimes they experiment... .. and I am not even proclaiming that we cannot learn by experimenting, so long as we attempt to figure out some kind of balance rather that taking too strong of positions..
surely some traders do end up getting pay-offs from having some conviction and holding to kind of long term views about price thresholds that end up playing out in their favor - kind of in a kind of luck.. but also at the same time being willing to live with either outcome - up or down.. and then extremes happen from time to time as we know.. so it can frequently pay off to have some mechanisms in place to be able to profit from those extremes and just letting the price come to you.. and if it does not, you are willing to live with that outcome too.. I am reminded of LFC and also Ivomm in regards to these kind of longer term plays in which I don't really completely agree.. but they reach their proper balances on a personal level and matters end up working out to their favor.. ... but I am not sure if Ivomm has bought back in yet... and LFC maybe only partially or perhaps a decent amount and maybe only smaller parts remaining in the grand scheme of things..
And, surely bitcoin price dynamics are a moving target.
Yesterday I added DOWNity scenarios to one of my own reference price prediction posts (and you can see that at the bottom of
this linked post) which is meant to help guys to attempt to think through these kinds of matters, and not necessarily cause anyone to have to come to the same conclusions regarding how much percentage should be assigned to each of the various price points for UP or down or even agreeing to any kind of time frame that they would expect such peak dips or peak rises to play out.. but there still can be some value in terms of attempting to figure out how much probability you feel that you should assign to various points and then if BIG events end up happening, then considering whether there might be some need to adjust the probabilities in terms of how far the price might go in one direction or another or how long it might take to play out.
In 2000 internet/biotech led the decline, followed by SP500 cratering within 6-10mo.
This time, "crypto", biotech and "internet" (FAANG) are cratering (at -50-60% already).
Maybe a bounce in June-July, then a true SP500 crash in the Fall, as usual?
This seemingly "inevitable" SP500 crashening that you see in the room with us is going to happen before or after the mid-term elections in the US of A?
