My prediction for the next 12-18 months?



I think the FED won't pivot till they have had a year of 5% interest rates.

I think that will be key to what people can and can't afford, and thus market confidence.

Sorry....


Meanwhile us in the UK will have gone through probably another 2 prime ministers by then and possibly a new government. I think the current lot will possibly throw in the towel and give us a general election, possibly before the end of the year but if not, definitely in 2023.

World wars have little to do with bad debt situations - that's supposed to happen after those wars end.

WWs are the results of political events (e.g. hypothetically the invasion of Ukraine), not economic ones.

+1 WOsMerit

FTFY

What I read is:  "Hi everyone!!!!   I'm new to the WO, and I am here to fix it."



You can imagine.. that sometimes in some locations there are difficulties making much of an income, and people will do a lot of work for amounts of income that do not seem to be very high, relatively speaking... but then sometimes in the west, a person might make less than $1k per month of income (and they can barely survive on that because once they pay for rent and food, they do not have anything left.. including that their lodging might not be very nice and their quality of food might be really low too), but that same amount would allow someone to live a really high standard of living (relatively) speaking in another part of the world... Maybe they struggle to get $500 of income per month, but if they can raise their income to $1k per month on a consistent basis, they feel that they would be set for life.

I am going to say that I consider bitcoin to merely provide more options, and it is going to take a very long time to transition though the various potentially imminently imploding systems that you are referring to, vroom.

Bitcoin will also not free us from suffering.. and there is likely going to be some geographical variance in the suffering, but there also may well be some purposeful efforts to cause suffering on people who usually do not suffer from these kinds of craziness.

There are a lot of people who are likely not really prepared for extreme negative scenarios and are continuing to hope that such extreme negative scenarios do not play out.. I am not completely removed from that.. and surely bitcoin is probably not enough.. still gotta eat and have lodging and to be free from having violence inflicted upon me.


Hearing about bitcoin, and having any clue about what to do about it or understanding it are quite different.  I heard the word "bitcoin," but I have no fucking clue what it means.  It has something to do with the internet. .or blah blah blah.. O.k.  What good does that do?

13% is also a pretty high number of supposed "owners of bitcoin"  

Worldwide we still likely have right around 1% ownership of bitcoin, and I question if current owners of bitcoin have "enough".. more than merely a token amount...something less than $200 worth... that would be less than 0.01BTC.. .. Does not sound like very much to me, even though it is a million satoshis... In the future a million satoshis will likely be a lot, but currently, it does not really seem like much.. especially since a million satoshis could be bought for around $200.

By the way, if everyone were to try to get 1 million satoshis, the BTC price would raise considerably, because everyone cannot get 1 million satoshis because there are too many current bitcoin holders who would not necessarily part with their BTC merely because the price is going up... but on an individual level, currently, it would not be very difficult to get way more than a million satoshis.