Probably because today is December 13, and some farts in the US will announce some new numbers today and probably cause a new mini crash - and some others in that case will not miss the opportunity to dump their BTC at a higher price - as laymen would say, a classic trap for the naive

This graph is beautiful: it shows how the probability that a UTXO will be spent in the following X days from its creation (where X, according to the curve, is equal at 7,14,30,60,90 and 120 days) is a function (decreasing) of the age of the UTXO.



In other words, when some BTC is spent, there is a high probability that it will be quickly spent again. If they don't, the likelihood of them being spent drops quickly over time.

The very interesting thing is that regardless of the time interval considered and, therefore, of the curve represented on the graph, the lines all tend to "become horizontal" after about six months (vertical dashed line).

On average, after six months, the probability that bitcoins will be re-spent in the following X days (where X ranges from 7 to 120 days) stabilises and becomes almost constant.

We can therefore define the six months of UTXO immobilisation as the watershed that separates the Short Term Holders (i.e. speculators or those who use BTC for purchases, remittances and, in general, any type of "dynamic" use) from the real Long Term Holders).

The next step is to ask yourself: how do UTXOs that have been idle for at least 6 months change over time?

Here we go:



Beyond momentary declines associated with the phases of euphoria of the bullish markets, the amount of BTC has been hodled for at least 6 months, it always grows in the long run, especially during bear markets

The curious thing is that this greater general immobilisation of bitcoins is associated with the more frenetic activity of younger bitcoins. The UTXOs spent are close to their all-time highs:



this is mainly explained by the fact that the volume of BTC spent with less than 6 months of seniority is at very high levels from a bull market



For me, the conclusions that can be drawn from this set of information are the following:

1- The share of BTC that go from dynamic use (Hodl< 6 months) to outright hodl (last movement > 6 months). This growth is slow but constant, and increases in bear markets

2- The dynamic uses of BTC are increasing both as utxo spent (at the maximum despite the doom and gloom atmosphere) and as volumes spent.

3- the first two statements, which seem to contradict each other, can be explained by an increase in the dynamics of the most recently spent BTC.

In a nutshell, the separation between immobilised and dynamic BTCs is increasingly clear-cut: the former are increasingly "stationary" (and grow over time) the latter are increasingly "moved" (and decrease over time).

The two souls of BTC (SoV and MoE+speculation) seem alive and kicking, despite the period we are experiencing.