Cycle low last time was around 3.2k, so 3x that was around 10k. Using 15k cycle low this time a 3x would be 45k. So I think it'll be the battle for 50k. Will be a nice set up for the next cycle post halving. 100k will fall ez

All this needs now is a Kiffness remix with the head-banging cat overlayed, and we'll have the new Bitcoin bull run theme song. 

Maybe i was looking too simple at things, but i don't do well in processing a lot of information.
Nevertheless, in a 4-year cycle manner, last ATH(s) were too early, last capitulation was in the mid of may 2018, so it felt about time that any major capitulation move, followed by strong "bitcoin is dead" sentiments, Saylor and Bukele no more buying... All of this (and more) fit together in my point of view. Thus, "unbreakable" support over $15k seemed reasonable enough for me to mark the bottom. I don't want to sound overly critical, regarding your way of looking at the market, but $10k, for example would have been way too big of a retrace then the globally expected 80% down, which also supported my feelings about bottom regards.

As you said, buying at $20k wasn't too bad either. I was out of free money for a while, which set back my buying plans a little, but i'm still satisfied.
At next ATH we will have forgotten our debate about this, anyway  



Yesterday, i read that ChatGPT is from Microsoft, so i don't wonder too much that it can't predict this.
It can, however, gather, connect and combine a lot of information and also express it quite well. Kudos for that.

EDIT: Just checked back on OpenAI history, and in fact it's not "from Microsoft" at all, besides that $1bn investment back in 2019.

It's true regarding time-wise, by the end of the year it did start to look more like the bottom was in despite being at the lows. You're completely right that a retracement down to $10K (or beyond $14K) would be much further than expected, so was always a bit skeptical. I think I was believing too much of the analysis based on inflation being bad for Bitcoin blah blah blah when in reality price has (so far at least) retraced much less in the 2022 bear market than in 2018 and 2014. So ironically, if the bottom is indeed in, Bitcoin has performed much better during the inflationary period than in previous bear markets without it. Oh the irony.

I'm always aware that some bears still believe a new low is coming this year due to an impending recession, which I do think is still possible, but to me it's becoming clearer that Bitcoin's price movements are more determined by it's own price action and 4-year cycle halvings, as opposed to any wider global economic sentiment. As I've always said, Bitcoin is only correlated to the stock market until it's not.

Wow!!  Sounds like you are going to need to readjust your HODL sleepie sleep schedule.   

It's like doing shift work perhaps? 

Every day, set your alarm for 1 hour before dawn in order to get up and to verify for ur lil selfie whether there are clouds in the relevant area (whatever that might mean?) of the sky or not.. maybe you could train a bot for pre-dawn cloud checking?  Ultimately, it seems the question would be if clouds present, go back to HODL sleepie sleep, and if no clouds, then get the fuck up so you can generate some nice and original (never before captured) pics for dee wall observer peeps.


How many times have we seen very similar behaviors?  Smarter than everyone else in terms of knowing down before up or down before more down until they disappear...  their position does not seem to have UP within it, and maybe they might say that UP might come someday in the future, but largely they seem to be emphasizing over and over that down is coming before up or that any up that we witness is merely a dead cat bounce.

But then sometimes after we have had quite a bit of UP, they will come back several times during corrections to attempt to point out how they were right..  Sometimes they admit that they do not have any coins, but other times, they will try to suggest that they are trading serious amounts of corn - yet generally seem to be like dust amounts to several of the OG members.. if we are actually able to get them to give some kind of ballpark regarding how much they are trading... 0.01BTC.. yeah right.. as if we are going to treat those kinds of investment portfolios as if they were currently life changing, even though 10 years down the road, they might be, they are not tending to deal with anything substantial/meaningful even while talking a BIG game, to the extent that they even have any sustainability in their sooner or later going to be reckt perspective.


I am surprised that people are so bullish.

There tends to be several corrections that exceed 10%, and we have not really had any meaningful corrections that go beyond 6% or 7% so far..... 

Even though there seems to be quite a bit of upwards price momentum currently, I would imagine that there is a decent amount of resistance between the current price of $23,250 and $24,600 - and then probably the next point of resistance would be in the $30k price territories... so it can be quite difficult to know how much the momentum can keep going when there has not been any meaningful price corrections - yet at the same time, historically we have had some of these seemingly outrageous and irrational upwards BTC price moves that go into a kind of punishment mode - and you never know in this particular case, there could be a couple of factors at play, including that 1) a lot of BTC have been removed from exchanges, 2) a lot of folks might be concerned about whether they still have a sufficient amount of BTC because of their having had been rug-pulled in the past 6 months or so.. or at least they are not confident about the quantity of BTC that they might own, 3) there might be some desires to punish some of the recent draconian and seemingly hostile governmental statements that have been coming out and aimed in the direction of BTC (trying to suggest that they are able to control and/or to tame my lil precious), and 4) perhaps some other factors that I am not currently considering.

My own answer in regards to that poll is that I hardly have any clue.. of course, I see the current seemingly exuberant BTC price movement, but at the same time, I also appreciate that these kinds of UPpity price runs are capable of running out of steam at any moment - even though they do not have to run out of steam because the last time I checked dee real cornz is actually a scarce asset, so if a lot of the fakers have been disabled or taken out of the market (whether temporary or not), market conditions (momentum) can end up following a kind of exuberant path.. that could even take us up to the lower $50ks within a few weeks, but I could not imagine going past the mid $50ks without hitting some kind of meaningful resistance (or having a 25% to 35% or more correction).

For sure you have been around the block LFC, so it it hard to believe that you were not attempting to make reasonable calculations in which you were actually prepared for either BTC price direction, even though I know in retrospect we can frequently assign different values to the assessments that we had been making at earlier times.  In other words, unless we execute perfectly, there seems to frequently be room to kick ourselves, even though we executed pretty damned well based on the information that we had at the time.

By the way, another thing is that if you are having higher than usual regrets, then it may well be a sign that you were "being too greedy," as you have assessed yourself to have had been.

This considerable UPpity BTC price move likely incentivizes a lot of us to start to feel that the bottom of $15,479 for this cycle is in, yet of course, we have to be careful about coming to those kinds of conclusions even though it does feel quite good to put some space between our current BTC price and that so far November 20 bottom price.. 

Many of us longer term BTC players (HODLers) likely realize that there are ways to structure our BTC portfolios in such a way that no matter what we are skewed towards UPpity, so sometimes if we are calculating how much we might have failed/refused to sufficiently skew towards uppity, then that ends up being a theoretical loss rather than an actual loss - at least in the sense that there are no give backs, and in that regards our preparations need to be future oriented so we should be o.k. in either direction, and then the BTC price is coming to us.. and yeah if we might have fucked up, then there usually can be ways to tweak a wee bit here and there, but still we have to accept and move on and if we do need to restructure, we restructure in such a way that the BTC price is coming to us, and that way at any given point in time, we should be happy no matter which way the BTC price goes... while perhaps having an ongoing preference for UPpity.

Of course, if we had sold on the way up or even sold some (such as 25% of our stash) in some kind of an UP position, then if the BTC price has dropped 50% to 70% from our sales price, then if we are a bitcoin bull, then we should have bought most of that sold amount back (even if we might have had been saving some portion of what we sold, perhaps up to 25% for lower prices that never ended up happening, so far)..


You must be new here.

Battles do not happen at previous ATH levels, even though normies continuously theorize about such battles as if they were theoretically likely.. yeah right    They are possible, but in very low percentages of possibilities.. single digits-ish perhaps?, even though resistance at previous ATHs are talked about almost continuously as if they were an actual thing that actually happens.  Go figure?

By the way... pro tip.. ... previous ATHs are also known as "no man's land," which largely means that they are price areas in which we tend to pass through quickly.. yeah there may be a few tests that span a few weeks.. but that is nothing in the whole scheme of things... previous ATHs are also known as bat country, not to be mixed up with batman slaps.  Lots of things to remember in bitcoinlandia, no?


When you are referring to the "flattest part of the S-curve," you seem to NOT be very well zoomed out.. .. Yes, when we are caught up in the s-curve, then parts of it look flat, but I doubt that we are getting to actual flat areas of the s-curve until somewhere supra $10 million per BTC (or in the area of 20x gold's market cap), and sure perhaps I am being too conservative because bitcoin is actually about 1,000x of gold's market cap, even though it could take a while to get there.. so maybe we might need to consider a little higher or further along beyond $10 million per BTC before we might start to see flattening of the s-curve.. even though the ultimate value of BTC is likely another 50x after arriving at $10 million, which would be $500 million per BTC.. though that seems way far off.. but it seems to be in the ball park of more stability.. even though it is quite likely that there could be quite a bit of stability between $10 million per coin and $500 million per coin, even though that does feel like a pretty big spread of 50x between the bottom and top of that relatively "stable" range.**

**Of course, it could take 100 to 200 years for the above described "stable range" to play out.. so a lot can happen between now and 100 years from now.. so when we are putting our own personal financial planning into practice, we need to be consider way shorter periods, such as 4-10 years or more and of course accounting for our own particulars, which includes that some folks might not even feel that they have a 4 year timeline in which they can lock up a lot of value into BTC, which surely can be quite volatile in the short-term, as we tend to witness on a ongoingly regular basis.


Fair enough.


My not so great understanding is that he sold around 25% of his stash at around $50k-ish, and then he bought the vast majority plus a little back between $16k and $24k-ish... and he held out a decent amount of his cash to be prepared to buy lower.. maybe 25% held back, which still could be a lot of dry powder to be holding?  I might be bastardizing this a bit, and so what?  we are largely talking in hypotheticals about "friends" that we know anyhow, no?  My friend does not believe in selling large portions of his/her BTC, but hey different strokes for different folks, and there surely are decently valid reasons to shave off some BTC when the price goes up sufficiently, especially when any of us is significantly in profits and we are also prepared to be wrong in case the BTC price does not end up correcting sufficiently below the point that we sold in order that we can buy back.

Gee, Jay...  
We're in the 21st century already  

See, dee app(s) on my smartyphoney thingy are going to tell me in advance how dense the clouds will be (low, med and high altitude separately).
The setup i try to realize for this comet involves a raspberry Pi3 controlling the scope, the planetarium software on my computer will keep track of the comet and the capture software will control the camera. All i have to do is to set it alll up before i go to sleep, and take off the dew cover at 3am, which i will have to set an alarm clock for, and then i will go back to sleep. It's just a matter of testing the setup and tracking, since it involves three pieces of new, complicated software to master.
The setup i'm using currently isn't capable of tracking comets. It's planetarium, control and shooting software all on a more powerful Raspberry Pi4, which i access via a remote desktop protocol. I could use this setup and track on the comet optically, without the planetarium delivering realtime positioning data, which would be my fallback method. The bad luck, in my case, is that there aren't any comets bright enough to test with the one suitable telescope i have.
I could even shoot the comet earlier at night, but the image data would be suboptimal through light pollution, mainly. As an Astrophotographer, you want to get things right as much as possible. You don't want to set up things for an hour in the freezing cold and all you get is a lousy picture after hours of collecting and processing the data.
When i grew up in an age of low light pollution, in a place far from cities, i could not resist the charming magic of the starry skies until today. Combine this with a special interest affine personality and astrophotography is the ideal hobby, after you got too old for hacking computers and playing games like Counter Strike through (at least) the first half of every night


Triple-yep, Jay. I almost knew my memories were blurred out already, but LFC shed a light on it earlier, too.
I don't think i'm always universally right in my thinkenings and believings. Again, i won't mention eXPHorizon as (counter) example here