Some dude on the tube just said that he expects ETFs trade at premium to bitcoin at first, maybe as much as 8%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUG1iZtcCmoIf so, then GBTC NAV at the closing (with btc at $45065 at 4m) was theoretically $40.16, but the last trade was at $39, which is "just" 2.9% discount to NAV and it "ought" to jump 3-11% at the start of trading (add or subtract to this the price change of btc).
Several conclusions:
1. If GBTC (or other ETFs, like the Swedish one) will start trading at the premium, I will think of dumping GBTC in my nontaxable ROTH accounts, collecting premium and buying "straight" btc with the proceeds. The risk is that the market can move away from me while I transfer the funds between the accounts, darn it!
2. One can only imagine the amount of fleecing retail investor would endure if they have to pay 8% (or more) premium to the underlying. GBTC used to have up to 40% premium at one point.
3. I can imagine the trade evolving, like buying bitcoin while shorting the etf as premium would eventually disappear.
None of it is an investment advice, just some thoughts.