Don't be so quick to dismiss the effect that the mtgox coins could have on the market.  Last time I looked the discussion was that about 130,000 BTC were going to hit the market once the coins are distributed.  After April we're looking at 450 BTC per day being added to the system.  That's like damn near dumping a year's worth (289 days) of BTC supply on the market overnight.  While there are certainly funds and OTC buyers lining up to get their hands on a massive chunk of BTC without moving the market, there's no way to tell if those 130K are going to be absorbed or cause an absolute market crash until it happens.  My hope is that people with deep pockets will see this as an entry point the way Tim Draper did back in 2012/2013 with the government auction of a massive amount of coins, but I wouldn't say it's certain.

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