[edited out]
I found those scenarios to be unlikely in a short time frame (1-2 years).
Most likely, we would pull up to a significant % of the gold market cap of about 12 tril (anywhere between 30 and 50%) aka $4-6 tril or 200-300K/btc.
My favorite number, if someone asks, is currently $236K/btc.
I am starting to think
$120k to $180k for 2024 - based on currently known dynamics and trends from ongoing ETF demand coupled with the halvening. (which is 2x to 3x) from $60k
Thus perhaps another 2x to 3x from the 2024 numbers for 2025 based on sheer momentum that has historically tended to go along with the cycles - which gives us
$240k to $540k for 2025.
Of course, my numbers are surely not anticipating anything close to straight up so there will probably be 4 or more corrections of 30% or more that might even last several weeks each time, and there could be something like 20 or more 10-15% or more corrections.
That would be the base-case scenario for price predictions, which surely means we could over or under perform, but we might have to revisit each leg along the way in order to consider if anything has really changed. As far as personal finances, stick with the 200-WMA rather than getting worked up about spot price, yet for 2024 and perhaps even 2025, I don't expect any corrections to get below within 20% above the 200-WMA - and if there is any correction that goes that low it would be a spike rather than anything lasting.
My upper scenarios would still be similar to
my chart from 2021 which would probably have the top number of $2 million plus for this cycle at less then 0.5% odds.
They probably got their maths and sciences from proudhon, which means they need to reverse it (do the exact opposite) for the numbers to actually make sense. In other words, change the negative to a positive.. which means 2x (at a bare minimum).
