I have difficulties considering even sub $50k to even be likely beyond a possible spike dip...
This has already happened just couple of month ago and Bitcoin jumps back from the exact support level I am suggesting.
So what that $50k just happened recently? You realize that the 200-WMA is getting close to $41k, so the 200-WMA is moving up close to $30 per day (and likely higher than 20% per year), so there is ONLY so much time that the BTC price can continue to stay down.
Yeah, you seem to not see bitcoin in the same kind of way, and surely I am not even proclaiming that UP is guaranteed, yet you seem to be quite blind if you believe that bitcoin is some kind of a mature asset class that is just going to continue to meander around its current price points and fail/refuse to go up or if bitcoin has equal chances of going down as it does to be going up.
an investor might just accumulate bitcoin until he has enough or more than enough, and then at that time, there could be some justification for selling some of the bitcoin just to live off of.
Would you agree in order to sell off even very minute part of his holdings, understanding market sentiments and crucial support/resistance levels might help to take better exit points?
People can do whatever they like, yet I don't consider bitcoin a good asset to be trading, so if a person has not accumulated enough BTC, then he needs to keep accumulating BTC until he has accumulated enough or more than enough, and I consider selling in order to accumulate more BTC to be a bad strategy.
Only very small portions of people are even capable of trading profitably, and even they may well be better off to invest into bitcoin rather than to be fucking around trying to trade what it either one of the best of investments available or the best investment available, so why fuck around trading the best investment. Hardly makes any sense, except that people have difficulties resisting gambling, even when they have something that is pretty damned close to a sure thing right in front of them.
just concerned about if he has enough so that he can start to cash some of them out whether based on prices or based on time...
Exactly - you need to have some understanding of price action in order to be a successful investor.
I am not saying anything about trying to figure out prices.. until after a person has already accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, then at that point of overaccumulation he can start to potentially shave off some of his BTC based on prices going up or based on the passage of time. You seem to be wanting to read trading into my discussion points, and surely I am not even talking about those kinds of trading matters.
I am not arguing for high-frequency day trading (which you seem to portray me as more and more as you advance with your argument).
I am not trying to portray you as anything.
You can portray yourself however you like.
Let's say one wants to become a long-term investor; understanding basic technical analysis and market sentiment can provide much better entry points.
Many times long term investors do not need to fuck around with figuring out their entry point. First thing that a long term investor should do is start buying BTC, and surely a long term investor might need to consider if he is able to lump sum and/or front load into bitcoin, and if he is able to establish a decent position from the start, then thereafter he might consider if he will supplement his initial entry position with buying on dips or even DCA... and likely even the guys who front load their investment into bitcoin might take a bit of time to continue to accumulate bitcoin until they might start to feel that they have enough.
Furthermore I would imagine that any long term investor into bitcoin would be considering investment timelines that are 4-10 years or longer, and anyone with less than a 10 year investment timeline would likely having such shorter term investment based on age and/or health considerations.. otherwise if the guy is considering getting in and out of BTC, then he is not an investor, but instead a trader.
You may well be convoluting and/or confusing your terms in regards to what is an investor and what is a trader. You seem to want to employ trading principles, but still call yourself an investor rather than a trader (gambler).
You can do what you like, so I am not saying that you cannot, but when you come into this thread with trading ideas in regards to your bitcoin portfolio accumulation and/or management, then you might get some backlash in regards to those kinds of approaches to your bitcoin, and not just from me.
whether selling some bitcoin periodically or using them for collateral or just having them int he background it there are other sources of income and cashflow to support your standard of living... and sure we might have ONLY bitcoin and cash, but we might end up having an array of various other assets, and some of those other assets might be leveraged on the bitcoin or hedged on the bitcoin, yet if they are quite excessive in order of providing enough income then there might not be any urgency to do anything about the bitcoin, except maybe move it around once in a while....
Again the amount of loan you will getting might be better if you have technical analysis on your side. You can time it according to crucial support and resistance levels.
Perhaps you can fuck around with your bitcoin like that, yet many guys have to reach high levels of accumulation before having those kinds of problems. Many guys, including in this thread and in this forum, have to first get towards building up their BTC to get to a point that they are through with their accumulation before they would bet to points of starting to spend their BTC and/or living off their BTC.
An overwhelming quantity of the world's population also have to get to a point of getting enough or more than enough BTC before they get to the more advanced problem of how to spend their BTC.
You seemed to have been suggesting fucking around with trading in order to accumulate BTC, so it seems that I was responding more to those kinds of issues that you were raising rather than the less important 1st world problems that might confront a guy who has already accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC.
I am not going to automatically run past the initial phase in which a guy has to get through his BTC accumulation phase and perhaps even part of his maintenance phase before he is even ready to start liquidating.. so i think that you are getting ahead of yourself or even ahead of where I would like to discuss since those first to stages seem way more important to me, and the guy who has gotten enough BTC or more than enough BTC can pretty much do whatever the fuck he wants anyhow...so I am not too worried about that guy... but I am worried about the guys who end up fucking around in their accumulation and their employing trading strategies to their BTC accumulation.. since a lot of those guys are not even going to come even close to having the problem of accumulating enough or accumulating more than enough BTC... which they gotta get to that point first.
or maybe you need an example?.. .if a guy might have had accumulated 500 bitcoin in the past 12 or so years, and perhaps 90% were accumulated in the first few years of his investment, so maybe his average cost per BTC might be around $300... so he had invested around $150k in total.. so then even now if he might have to shave off a bitcoin here and there, it is going to take a while to deplete his stash,
so he might not even care that much if he sells some of his BTC.. and maybe his living standard is around $100k per year or so... or if he might move some of his coins around in various places from time to time and use some of them as collateral.... so the longer that he is in bitcoin then the more his value of his coin goes up so long as he is mostly hanging onto them. So even now the
200-WMA value of those coins are about $20 million and the spot price value is around $34 million.. but if he is largely living off $100k per year, maybe he could increase his standard of living and he still is likely going to be fine whether he sells some of his coins from time to time or if he uses them in other ways.
I was not arguing that short-term frequent trades are better than long-term investment trades.
I am not either. I give little shits about either kinds of trades.
I shared my views on Bitcoin price speculation, giving some technical analysis and a plan of action, all of which is based on proven concepts of technical analysis (though not 100% guaranteed).
Yeah, they were pretty dumb ideas.
Every trader/investor has a different mindset, confidence level, and risk appetite, so it would be a categorical mistake to come up with an example (with so many assumptions) comparing traders versus investors.
I do it all the time.
It seems to me that investors (especially new ones) do not need to spend a lot of time worrying about price. They can just accumulate BTC for 4-10 years or longer and then perhaps reassess where they are at along the way. Of course, they should be attempting to account for
their individual factors, so that they can build up their BTC holdings in a way that is tailored to their own circumstances.
Trump pump begins
I don't think they'll let him win
all these 50/50 shoulder to shoulder election races reek of manipulation. And it seems common in the recent time.
What are the odds that hundreds of millions of people get split right through the middle every single time?? To the contrary, if you cheat, you would only cheat to the degree that you beat your opponent hence almost 50/50 results...
You are probably correct however the next 24/48 hours could be epic 😎
It's got 2013 written all over it
we might see an epic dump if the dems win... this could be the pump to increase the dump depth
Dump could come no matter the results.
We know the dynamic of buy the rumor and sell the news, so that there can be a bit of overshooting in each direction, just because there is a lot of potential for price movements during times like these.
[edited out]
Long term holders unaffected
Anyone with 15btc or more purchased under 20k a piece does not give a shit unless we drop lower than 15k or jump higher than 100k
but a lot of people are setting their hopes on this election. because they are not in at <20k with 15 or more coins
Gosh Philip, you sure like to prod.
I doubt that the cost per BTC matters too much, but surely anyone with 15 or more coins.. that is kind of not a bad place to be, and surely any of us would feel better to have average costs per BTC that are lower rather than higher.
You still seem to be unable to really get out of your trading kind of mentality.
You know that anyone with 15 or more BTC could still start to employ either a time based and/or a price based withdrawal strategy, so it may not really matter so much how much it had cost for such person to get to such status, yet maybe in the beginning he might start with a fairly conservative withdrawal strategy and work his way up to higher levels of withdrawal..
That person would have around a $610k valuation based on the 200-WMA and a bit over a million based on the spot price.
So if the person might be an oldie foggie like you, then maybe he starts out with his withdrawal somewhat conservative (maybe 4-6% of the 200-WMA dollar value) and then perhaps after a year or two, he might be able to increase his withdrawal rate to 8% to 10% per year of the 200-WMA value..
