Having low costs per BTC does not likely come from trading, but instead tends to come from being in the market a long time and having had front-loaded your investment (at least somewhat within the first cycle or so (or maybe the first cycle and a half?) that you are in).
So there is a bit of marvel that the price of bitcoin can move several times the amount that some of us have invested into it in a matter of days.. and we likely also realize that we are still likely going to be having $20k plus candles (to the upside) in a day. To come.. To come.
Having such low costs per bitcoin is a good evidence of consistency and aggression, and enough front-loading exercise, as low as $6k?? That's crazy!
Surely there were quite a few opportunties to buy bitcoin below $6k between 2018 and early 2020, yet by mid-2020, those opportunities to get bitcoin at or below $6k no longer came to pass.. .yet guys still might not have had recognized the value of $6k-ish or lower bitcoin at that time, and even in early 2020, during our flash crash down to $3,800, there were guys selling coins below $6k.
So, frequently, it can take time for guys who are supposedly studying bitcoin to recognize value prices, just like right now, it seems quite likely that getting coins in the lower $100ks may well be a bargain, and sub $100k might never be reached again, yet at the same time, it could take a year or two before it starts to sink in that low $100k, if you can still get coins at these prices is surely a reasonable price to be paying to get a hold of some sats.
My own theory is that it frequently takes a while to build a bitcoin portfolio, so even if there were several opportunities to get BTC for less than $6k between 2018 and early 2020, guys do not tend to have a lot of money that is just sitting around that they can throw at bitcoin, so they frequently will have to gather up their funds and even just invest within their discretionary income (such as income from a job) that just comes in on a regular basis, and even if a guy has good amounts of discretionary income, it still takes time to dedicate that money towards BTC and to build up a bitcoin holdings, so in that regard, I would think that most guys who are sporting a bitcoin stack with average costs at or below $6k, they got into bitcoin (or at least started their bitcoin accumulation journey) prior to October or so of 2017. Of course, there could be guys in this thread who are exceptions to such expectation of mine, yet I would consider those guys to have some level of luck (and/or persistence and/or insight about bitcoin) to have had been able to accumulate their bitcoin stash at or less than $6k and if they had started their bitcoin journey on or after October 2017... Congratulation to those likely exceptional guys.
This does not apply to bitcoin gamblers that have ventured into bitcoin at the same time you made your first investment but decided to HODL while they were playing smart and selling to buy at dips. What have they really achieved, most of them must have been frustrated out of bitcoin already while others are heartbroken.
You are correct that it is likely difficult to either develop staying power or to sustainably build a bitcoin portfolio when there are considerations that it is possible to accumulate and/or build a bitcoin stash by selling bitcoin rather than staying focused on exclusively buying bitcoin.
My inner man would want to go back to the Mt Gox era and front load my bitcoin or back to 2015 when you almost felt reluctant to accumulate but never sold a piece. Anyway, there's no time to regret, moreover you're much older and could retire any moment while I still have a long way to go, but your experience remains young every day because of it's workability and result.
There is ONLY so much utility that comes from fantasizing about changing the past, even though surely many of us retain inclination to engage in such fantasies regarding ways that we might consider changing the past.
So essentially, as you suggest, we have to figure out ways to learn from the past in order to try to lessen our past mistakes (to the extent that we even consider that we made any mistakes and/or if we would have had changed what we did in the past, since frequently, we are actually employing choices that we perceive to be best based on the information that we have, so in order for us to come to different results, we frequently would have to change our whole mindset.. which might not have had been very likely and/or feasible since we do come to each point in our lives based on quite a few historical factors that affect how we think and how we end up developing based on our actions and thoughts.
(I know, I am getting a bit abstract that I am probably even beginning to lose myself). Cycles do exist,
And more ATHs will come.
This year, guaranteed!
Still two days to go.
Chances are slim for this month,
But you never know!
These two together are gold.
Here's my TLDR interpretation.
I predict that the price of king daddy is guaranteed to reach ATH this year, even though my last prediction did not play out too well.
D
Extension of the idea:
If I keep throwing this gooey stuff at the wall, sooner or later some of it will stick.[...]
The only Bitcoin price prediction I consider as accurate and valid is this:
- Given enough time, Bitcoin is going up. (a.k.a., "It's going up forever, Laura!").
The natural consequence of the above prediction is this:
- Buy when you can, sell when you must.
By applying the above for the last 10 years, I have multiplied my investment by a factor of 57 as of today (i.e., a x57 increase of my fiat wealth).
To me, any short-term (less than a cycle) Bitcoin price prediction is for the LULZ and should be treated as such.
Fair enough.
It is a good place to be to have enough of a cushion that any further UPpity is icing on the cake... which even implies that each of us in a similar situation are likely able to weather quite extensive negative consequences, yet we still ae in a position that we could sell 5% to 10% of our stash at any particular time, and get all of our money back (even 2-5 times of all of our money back), in the event that we believe such drawing out of value is helpful or needed... and surely sometimes, we might run into person consequences in which we consider drawing out 5% and even up to 25% would be helpful to our own situation, and we are not even really putting our bitcoin in any kind of problematic size.. .. which largely means that we have likely reached an overaccumulation level that may well be greater than 25% of we might consider our threshold target level (or our threshold fuck you status level - or whatever it might be that we are aiming to be our threshold level of financial and/or psychological satisfaction).
Since Cramer said "I say crypto is fine" I'm convinced that we will dump into the beginning of October...
I didn't forget the past. Did you forget? Why October is called Uptober.
Uptober is comingWO Gents! are you Ready?
hahahahaha..
I think that we have seen plenty of years (in bitcoin as I recall) where the dump starts to happen in the beginning of October, and so then several normies get depressed and retracted (and perhaps some sell), and then the later part of the month ends up causing the UP to be greater than the down.. .and works out well for those who had largely just held through the whole ordeal.
Short-term predictions are nothing but half-baked guesses from self-proclaimed experts who are all tossing random numbers and praying their wish comes true.
Here's my prediction for UPtober, it is going to Mooooooon.....
Fair enough.
Many of us will still make the short-term predictions for funzies
(Many times hard to resist).. which largely means that we are not really acting upon them in any kind of meaningful way, but they can still be fun to make.
