The chance of Gox being shut down today is pretty much the same of Gox being shut down two weeks ago.
I appreciate your point and I do think it's unlikely that Gox will face anything other than a fine, but sometimes where there's smoke, there really is fire. I would hesitate to say that it's an overreaction for people to move their assets until things are cleared up.
To my knowledge, Gox hasn't even released a real statement addressing recent events.