is there a way to find out how many BTC are really used to buy things.
Here's an idea.
Blockchain.info has some great, basic charts and stats about bitcoin. Let's use this data to come up with an equation.
Here's what we need:
- Total amount of bitcoin in existence (market capitalization, A)
- Total amount of bitcoin that is transacted over a period of time (transaction monetary volume, B)
- Number of days between new transactions for each bitcoin (transaction turnover, C)
The equation is (B * C) A = percentage of Bitcoin used for purchases of goods/services.
1) The
market capitalization represents the value of all the bitcoin that's been mined. Today that number is $18.7B (
https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap)
2) Let's assume that nearly all of the
transaction monetary volume in any given day is used to buy goods or services. Bitcoin that's being saved or hodled (if you prefer) doesn't exchange wallets. The transaction volume (exchange traded volume per day) ranges from $6M to $111M between late 2013 and current (when activity started to pick up consistently). Now this is a daily number so we need to find a median - simply the median between these two numbers is $58.5M. So on average the daily transaction volume is above or below $58.5M
3) Let's assume that the
transaction turnover, the amount of time between purchases for goods/services with the same bitcoin is 1 transaction per week. If we multiply the $58.5 median daily volume by 7 days, we get $405M. This is our average amount of bitcoin used to purchase goods and services.
So, ($58.5M * 7) $18.7B equals 2%.
With these rough assumptions I'm saying 2% of the bitcoin in existence is used for purchasing goods over any 7 day period.
What do you think? This seems low to me. Let's debate how we could change the assumptions and let's start with how much time (on average) exists between two transactions with the same bitcoin. If we increase that number, we increase the percentage.