i removed this line:
If BU survives and the minority chain dies off, BU transforms from altcoin into "Bitcoin".
because if BU had majority. its already bitcoin along with the other implementations (where segwit is the altcoin or just dead)

theres still some irregularities even with the FTFY summary. due to when/if core triggers their bip9/UASF/PoW change, and which markets treat it as such. and as highlighted if there remained 2 chains or not. or the opposing implementations give in to join the peer or tier network
but its close enough

in the post from like an hour ago which u revised

actually it can.

an altcoin can be made by just 1 node deciding it wll do its own thing if it wanted to.
an altcoin can be made by majority banning and splitting that last 5% minority will do its own thing if it wanted to.
an altcoin can be made by the last 5% minority banning and splitting themselves do its own thing if it wanted to.

but then that minority have to ask themselves is there a good enough reason to try keeping it going.

(so many scenarios running through my mind.. kinda hard to summarise it all)

a few things we are sure of
1. BU and other lik minded peers wont trigger unless safe majority of node and pool (no threats, no time bombs, no blackmails. just plod along and let nature handle it)
2, core will have the triggers, time bombs and threats and could trigger while things are contentious, forcing the issue or at consensus. but its core rocking the boat more than anything else

still too early to tell

its not a simpl "hash wins"

it is about nodes, network confidence of majority nodes and also which merchants allow deposits of it.

funny part is..
by the exchanges saying they will accept bu (and if controversially call it BTU/BCU or consensus call it bitcoin and segwit BCC/SWcoin)
they are actually helping BU and other dynamics to be accepted as "the bitcoin" in a majority event
remember BU wont trigger itself unless it it has the 3.. hash, nodes and merchants.

other matter is.
BU is just one implementation. if a base blocksize limit movement trigger does occur. many implementations(classlic xt) would work with it.
core is just one implementation. if a segwit block trigger does occur. many implementations(btcc, knots) would work with it.

so its not strictly a BU event or a BU chain.. its more of a

dynamic peer vs segwit tier
rather than
bu vs core

but thats just confusing the matters more.

i think im going to drive your mind crazy now.. sorry in advance

5% of pool consensus of blocks does not mean 5% hashpower.
5% of pool consensus of blocks does not mean 20x longer to make a block once going at it with 95% less competition...

save re-writing it

ok im gonna take a break.. (brain switched off in 3.2.1)

im just addressing your comment about you and other peoples bad maths of block times

EG
imagine a room
4 tables and groups of people sat at each table.

they are all given a set of  6dice
they have to roll them until someone gets 1,1,1,1,1,1

the red table could get it in 10 minutes.
it does not mean that because red get it in 10 minutes that the brown table would take 20 minutes or the purple table would take 30 minutes or the blue table would take 40 minutes

they could all be seconds apart but because red won, that round only red counts so no one cares about the other 3 tables times.
next round, starts again, this time the brown and blue table both get it but based on how many shakes to get it was just one extra shake in favour of brown. they are shown as doing the slightly miniscule extra amount of work so they win.. other 3 table are not counted.

now then.. if you evict the red and blue from the room.. this does not suddenly make the groups any slower. infact it helps them as there is less competition to beat them by seconds. so now brown and purple can get more blocks more often because there are less competitors to lose against by seconds

..
also a note
the difficulty is not set by "network hashrate" nor is the speed of say red table or blue tables shakes/dice helping brown or purple.
they all have different dice and doing their own work
infact the faster red and blue shake the less chance brown and purple get because red and blue could beat them by seconds.
its not the faster red and blue shake the more thy help brown and purple. (increase of network does not help the work of a single team)

in short
when antpool wins a block. its because of the work done by antpool and antpool only... the other hashrates of the other pools did not jump into their pool to help antpool. antpool alone made a bloke with thir own 600peta. not the networks many exa..

when red wins a diceround. its because of the work done by red and red only the other shakes of the other tables did not jump into the red table to help the red table. the red table alone shook the correct dice combination first with their own teams hands not all the hands of the room.

its a competition of different pools/tables doing their OWN work. competing against each other.. not a collusion of a single pool/room all shaking/hashing one thing

BU is the original Bitcoin without changes.

SegWit has many radical changes.  SegWit is the alt.  BU is Bitcoin.

I understand this, but did I contradict this in a prior statement?

But, you do agree that there are "different pools doing their OWN work. competing
against each other" but their independent correct answers is based on the prior 2016
block collective, that is used for difficultly to scale back to a 10 minute average, right?

So for example, if a pool 1 has 99% hash and pool 2 has 1% hash of the total network
hash, and Pool 1 (99%) "drops off" the network, Pool 2 (1%) is still trying to find the
10 minute average block based on a nonce/difficultly that accounts for the total
network hash prior to the Pool1 (99%) "drop off". So Pool 2 has no competition
and they will "always find the blocks first now", but it will take them much longer
on average to find the blocks in general.

In the above para, if Pool 1 (99%) dropped off, then it will take Pool 2 (1%) about
144 days in order to make 144 blocks (1 block per 24h). To get to the difficultly
adjustment, it would take at maximum 2016 days, which is 5.5 years.

Are we in agreement, or am I still missing your point?

the 2016 blocks has nothing much to do with hashrate.

for instance.
pool A could have 500petahash and pool B has 480peta - not that important to state this and you will see why

this would give A a few second advantage..
however. this does NOT mean expect 1109 blocks for A...... 907 for pool B
infact
pool A could be lucky enough that EVERY block which A makes is just 2 seconds faster than pool B
meaning

A gets ALL 2016 blocks.

then if there was a split.
they are both making blocks at nearly the same times on 2 chains. yet the activation 2016 blockcount says that A has 100% power..

it does not mean that because A has 100% block winning that B will take hours to make blocks.

---

as for the network hash rate

now imagine there was pool C with 480peta
and imagine there was pool D with 480peta

this changes nothing for pool A. pool A still does the same work at the same time with the same 500peta.

but B,C,D are all just unlucky.

the network hashrate going from 980peta to 1,940peta again does not affect pool A's work in the slightest.

all it means is now there are 3 competitors agains A so A may not always get so lucky.
but again this does not mean suddenly A is only making ~500 blocks.. A could still get all 2016.

this is what has been known since 2012 as the risks of a 51% attack. where one pool just has the little edge against the rest to be able to potentially control all the blocks produced.

nothing to worry about.

It's likely there will be no network split at all.

if there is, simply hang onto your coins and the market will quickly sort it out -- your coins will be valid on both chains.

infact the exchange announcement of naming BU an alt if core pull a contentious trigger. is meaningless in regards to the naming...
by admitting they will accept the coin (no matter what exchanges name it) means the coins have utility.(they are spendable)

what would have been different is if the announcement would of said.. no matter what they would only accept core. then the dynamic implementations wont have much utility.

---

i know your looking for a economics answer of BUY X sell Y.. but no one can predict future speculation without a time machine