Interesting thoughts. However the exchange market converts BTC <> $ ¥ . If you have an ATM system then you have an operator essentially acting as a gateway to the FX market. So the ATM operator would hedge his positions in the most liquid market. That's what banks usually do. I've read that even smaller companies pay up to 0.50-1.00% for FX transactions. And so we are back to the exchange problem, because a "BTC bank" would have to use the exchange for hedging.
Yes this is the difficult thing I deliberately avoided getting into at this point, how to call the price of btc and not end up 'subsidising' its operation due to market fluctuations. I think a buffered daily or weekly rate might work, it requires proper thought.
There are different kinds of functions of banks, exchanges, market markers which possibly can be completely re-invented, re-designed. But one of the most crucial aspects are commonly overlooked on this board, and that is the aspects of law. If you the Bitcoin entities have the same kinds of regulations as the standard entities and the interaces are controlled by the existing banks, exchanges, it doesn't much of a difference, at least where that infrastructure exists. It does not make much sense to convert $ into BTC and then into ¥, because you are only going to pay much higher fees most of the time.
It would be up to the individual operator/builder in each case, for example in my country you'd have to apply for a 'fit and proper test', and then apply for the Money Services License.
The real power in the short term is in places where infrastructure does not exist. Say for poor countries where there are not even proper banks and ATMs. Imagine being able to roll out a banking infrastructure around BTC. You would basically save 99% of the costs.
Exactly why this could be a game changer, however I feel you'd need some presence in '1st world' countries so people can send money to their families. This would speed up adoption.
Say if MtGox would be shutdown the price would probably drop by 70% in a matter of days, and the market would dry up. So in this sense BTC is not safe at all.
again, the difficult question, and where this idea may lose its viability, market fluctuation.
Thanks for your thoughts.