7% more than b&h, which this question was all about.

I don't refute the argument that the bot could be improved. I'm sure the devs are open to suggestions. Go ahead, I'm sure you have much to share.

Hey ,
  It's not a "buzzword", it is a long term strategy, it's also a trend strategy, not a High Frequency Trader (HFT). The fact that you don't like the word doesn't change that EMA will work best over the long term for the multitude of reasons described.  

I frankly don't see your issue with time frames as we have provided them, they back test your periods to the day, so if you back test for 6 months today, it will back test 6 months to the day, if you back test 1 month from now, it will back test 1 month to the day so there really is no way to game this as we can't control what markets happen in those time frames.

Now I like your idea of including custom time frames, that's something we could definitely look at for the next version, I mean that, there really is no issue.

I agree that the strategy can be improved, we are working on a new engine, because all strategies can be improved; you are however ignoring several people who posted that are making and have made a profit with EMA; it's not fair to pick and choose what data you want to accept in your argument and what you will ignore.

I agree that the strategy does not guarantee profits for everyone at all times, if you find such a strategy (which doesn't exist), you will be posting from your LearJet; what I can tell you is that: EMA will tend to generate more profit than not OVER TIME. Goomboo has made this argument quite successfully over 50+ pages, so it's not like we invented.

I again encourage you to review Goomboo's thread, he is the absolute authority on this issue and I think there is a lot you could gain from reading it. I mean absolutely no offense, I think that if you took the time to read about the strategy, maybe peruse Goomboo's thread and post there as well you would gain some insight on something that other people are telling you has worked for them and something that has been discussed ad nauseum in one of the most respected trading threads on this forum (Goombo's thread).

EMA as Applied to Bitcoin (Goomboo): https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/60501.0



Pablo.

my friend, you are wrong,
is just an illustration, you can see the test by yourself in the bot, 60-70% of the trades return a lower % if the original sell.
thats becuase it sell high, and buy high...

its easy, it just lack a simple engine to buy low when the chance is there,

needs diversification and buy trigger rules.

its.
so.
easy.
-

Sometimes I feel I'm speaking Chinese  

I know it's a long time strategy. But like I said, just try this. Try the bot for 3 or 4 different 6 months periods, they can even be overlapping in some part they just cant be exactly the same.
Now, the setting your find for the bot that will give profit in one, will not give profit in another, they will make you loose BTC in other time frames! Equally LONG time frames!

What you are doing all over this thread is cherry picking some settings that work for a very specific time frame. It's doesn't mater if it's a long or short time frame, you are cherry picking in every example you give.

I read Goombo's before I came to this one a long time ago before I was even a member of this forum. And the thread is also clear if you look at the numbers. You are loosing BTC by using the EMA crossing strategy, but yes, you are only making money because the market is bullish
Same goes for the analysis of EMA strategies you can find about other markets. They give you profit in fiat, only! What they manage is to avoid major losses. So, those people invest in lot's of different products, and since the overall tendency of the market overal several equities is to go up... they cut the losses with EMA and make profit from the ones that actually go up.
This is what's happening with this bot.

just a test to see how many times the EMA lines triggers a buy to buy cheaper than you sold at:

-------------------------
12 buy trades in 2 month

10 of them it bough higher than it sold.
no sense strategy.

As some smart guys already notice, bot make you lose your bitcoins slowly

thats a 83% fail ratio of trading.

https://i.imgur.com/uL1au4w.png

i am waiting impatiently to see the back testing of the proposed changes

i used a short time frame so it dont take 300 minuts to checkhow many fails there are on 200 trades over 2 years.

i don't expect to have 0 fails, i expect it to try get profit if there was a down trend, and it don't.
if not, then cut loses buying back is what should be done,


its better than buy and hold? well... due the way it trades, responsability relays into how big market drops are.

you start with 100$  at 122,888 = 0.813 BTC
you end up with 0.900 btc


i guess you are right, you won 0.087 btc in two months,


if you buy and hold, at the end of those two month you wil have 0.813 btc to buy at 722.367  = 587,284371$
if you use the bot you have 0.9 btc to buy at 722.367 = 650,1303$
 

587$ to 650$ = 10% win

now those are real numbers.
quite far from the "593.21%" the bot says due the way its calculating the profit (price rises)

bot should show % win based on how many btcs it won, and not in the price rise of bitcoin, as it return the fake feel that thnks to the bot
you won "593%"

in 12 trades, 10 are loses and 2 are win, thanks to those two wins, bot was able to recovery the loses,
but if there was no nice scenario were price drop enough to get a big enough win that recover the loses, then it would keep eating your bitcoins slowly,

a strategy to win something at each drop is the key to make this bot a real winner and not a wasteful of bitcoins software.

sure you can check the setup i put for the test, is the one that return 13 000% "profit" in one year,
https://i.imgur.com/9KfsOTy.png

sorry but no matter what you say, if the bot sells high and buy even higher almost always, then the bot is dumb, its a fact, numbers don't lie.
the profit is misleading based on the marke price rise.

This extra 10% was just a lucky configuration based on past results, we talk about the way bot operates. Market itself will mutiply by 5x, so you dont need to risk into loses using the bot if you just look at this way.

let's see if with the proposed changes Pablo can backtest as soon as possisble and we can take a real profit using it when a drop takes place, as i can make better decisions manually.

well its not a 1-2% extra profit, its going to be MUCH more, and its neither an HFT strategy, is just as easy as check if bitcoin price already droped to an enought % to worth a buy and take profit, instead of just follow the trend back, because doing it, then 90% of time make the bot "sell high - buy higher",

Hi folks,

Interesting product. I have been trying it out for the last few days and I'm afraid that I can't say I'm impressed, either by the performance of the bot or some of the arguments on the board.

I would give this a second look if:
-I could configure the profit window to show BTC profit/loss.
-I could filter out the rise of bitcoin as a measure of the bot's success. I want to see how successful this thing is over-and-above a buy-and-hold strategy.
-recommended and configurable settings for high and low volatility markets. It would be great if the bot could self-detect the change in market conditions and adapt.

A bot that loses me BTC while increasing my dollar holdings is only selling off BTC and calling it profit. I could do that without a bot.

Pablo, you have been very active on the boards and I appreciate that. I would be very willing to pay for a bot like this if I could see that it works with a reasonably high likelihood of success in increasing both my BTC and dollar holdings. In that case, I would pay because the thing would be paying for itself.

There may be some arcane set of settings that will achieve this, but to be honest, one reason to have a bot is that it can do it for me. If I have to work that hard, it's probably better that I just go back to staring at the charts.

I'll probably keep playing with this for another few days and then I am planning to post a review on my website. Please contact me if you have any relevant information.

Cheers,

BTCWarrior