Of course not, just like I can't guarantee with 100% certainty that Slush wasn't fiddling with his new quantum computer module the week before when we were at 200% luck for the week.

Shifting the goalposts to be about professionalism aside, the original observation remains valid. Every time there's a long block pages of posts pop up talking about how something must be broken, or Slush is playing games, or whatnot. It won't change of course, I imagine this conversation will die down soon until the next time we get a 99%+ block, at which point new people will be talking about how Slush broke the pool or is stealing everyone's money.

LOL

You can call me Mr. Ignorance from now own, pekatete.

Sure, it could very well be a string of bad luck at the moment.

I understand perfectly well about GHash adding more of their own miners, as well as "UNKNOWNS" adding more hashing power, which in turn would affect Slush's ability to find more blocks by decreasing Slush's percentage of over all hashing power from lets say 6% to 5 % of the total BTC mining network.

It could very well be a string of bad luck.

Forgive me IF my comment about Slush's back end possibly being down "maybe" [we'll never know].  I'll stop making comments like those.

With that aside, I still think I made the correct decision to mine elsewhere, as I'm BETTING THE LUCK elsewhere will be a little better than at Slush today.  When I play Texas No Limit Holdem, I PLAY FOR LUCK, so to speak.  That is pretty much the same thing I'm doing when I mine.  However, I'm not a hopper, in the sense of using a program to quickly switch from one pool to another.  It's like I wake up each day and wonder, "Which pool am I putting my bets on TODAY to be lucky."

By the way, it won't be long before I have a "T-Shirt" as well.  So, bare with me.  LOL

That's not how it works. The only thing that affects the number of blocks found (besides luck) is the pool hashrate and the current difficulty. Other pools could add an Exahash/s of equipment and it wouldn't affect how many blocks Slush mines (at least until the difficulty adjusts). Conversely, every other pool could cease to exist and the only thing mining on the network is Slush's ~10PH/s, and we would still find one block every five hours or so.

tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.

Do you care to throw some light on how Slush computes their pool luck then? Surely, network hash-rate is a factor (not mathematically speaking, but could also be!).

I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards.  However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past.

The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it.  They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they  have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers.

FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day.  

At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck).  

To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period.  Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck.  WHY?  Cause we can't find 60% of a block.  We can only find a "whole" block.  You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck.  That would be a rare occasion indeed.

Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average.

The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/   IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear.  You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate.  No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor.  The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool."

The following answer was given for 8000 Th/s (8 Ph/s):

Difficulty   35,002,482,026.00
Mining Factor 100   0.00 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts
Average generation time for a block (solo)   5 hours, 13 minutes (can vary greatly depending on your luck)
Hardware break even   1 day
Net profit first time frame   3890503.64 USD

You can come up with these figures for ANY pool you desire by first entering in an approximate average hash rate of the pool.  Then, if you like, you can determine the average payout for your personal hash rate at that pool by staying at the pool for 24 hours.  Once you know your payout based on shares [considering if the hash rate is the same average as your previous calculation], you can multiply the average pay out by the average number of blocks found for each day.  Then multiply that answer by 30 days and you have an average payout for a month for that pool.

Example:

[Slush] 4.60063897 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06682295 BTC average each day.  That would be 2.00468841 BTC in 30 days (1 month).

I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have.  One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...

I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it.  I report, you decide.   LOL

Also, IF you know, why bother asking?

Also, you said, "Slush has no way of knowing what the hashrate pointed at his pool is."

Really?



What the heck is that you are seeing after being on the pool for 60 Minutes IF it is not hash rate?

 If I can see my hash rate, THEY can certainly see my own hash rate.  

IF they can see MY hash rate, THEY can certainly see everyone else's!

WHY SO OBJECTIVE?  Can you not keep an open mind?  Do you have everything figured out?  

I think you need to take that damn T-Shirt off!

EVERY POOL LETS YOU KNOW WHAT THEIR HASH RATE IS.

LOOK:







All of these are proof they KNOW the hash rate.

May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!

EDIT: I just hit upon a plan, I'll rephrase my question: How do I find out what a pool's luck is?

Right, I shall cease asking difficult questions ..... that's it.

How do they not have access to it, if THEY are the one's giving MINE to me?

LOOK at the "header" above the box for your workers in "account."  Then tell me what it says...

It says, "Total average hash rate in last 60 minutes."