just for argument's sake, what evidence does the public (anyone outside of mt. gox) have that there even was an attack? how would anyone know that it wasn't a large holder of bitcoins who was trying to sell, hoping to get a decent price from large dark pools he or she suspected existed? then, unhappy with the total price received from the bulk sale, this large holder could have then asked or paid mt. gox to roll things back.

i'm not suggesting that happened, but how would anyone know? many following the live data as it was happening assumed that it was simply a large holder of bitcoins selling, and that's not an unreasonable assumption.

the reason i ask is that people who did act on the data were not unreasonable to do so; a rollback for them is a presumably an odd surprise.

That's certainly a thought that could be valid to play with but it seems unlikely.

The hacker explanation sounds plausible given the prior reports of accounts being hacked, and the subsequent release of password hashes. If there really was a large seller who legitimately wanted to 'try the waters' and sell off massive amounts of coins at once just to see how much he or she could get, and then somehow could convince MtGox to destroy their own reputation to roll back the transaction - and this sounds implausible already - how likely is it that that would happen at the same time as a massive security breach? Would that be staged too?

Yes, it is based on this fact.

If so the timeline is off by a little since it says Mark Karpeles was only woken up after that transaction had occurred. I do hope it's true.

Pretty good timeline! As for when the database was leaked, it was at least 5 minutes before you show it at. theymos can look up the exact time, since the post wasn't actually deleted.

HAHAHAHAHA. DUDE IS HILARIOUS. CALLED HIMSELF GEORGE CLOONEY BECAUSE OF OCEANS 11.


Definitely suave.

Adam works at MtGox. I think he's fairly new.

the input to the large transaction came entirely from the other large mtgox transaction of June 12th, which Tux explained at the time as being a security move to put majority of mtgox BTCs offline.  So we can be fairly confident the transfer was from MtGox offline storage.  Also, based on the numbers the full offline balance was moved.  So that makes sense.  I don't believe those BTC were available for withdrawal from mtgox.  For example, when I withdrew from mtgox a few days ago (spooked about increasing account compromise reports), the trx inputs were from 5 separate addresses.  I assume those are the online accounts and are the ones available for withdrawal, subject to daily limit.  I think it actually makes a lot of sense that he would re-secure the 400,000 offline BTC storage first thing when he woke up - before logging into IRC - even if he wasn't yet sure if an attack was in progress.

Thanks, I did add the info.

I got confirmation from MagicalTux that the 432k BTC transfer was MtGox moving coins to a safer location.