See, that's my concern. That with the breakout being more explosive,I'm afraid that lower downsides are possible.
Before resumption of uptrend, my guesses at the likelihood of touching recent low-points:
Chance of touching $100 - 80%
Chance of touching $97 - 50%
Chance of touching $79 - 33%
Chance of touching $50 - 10%
Chance of falling below $50 - 1%
Of course, this assumes no game-changing news/events affecting the market.
It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Interesting well speculated.
What is your time frame on this?