Alright, since I get cred for calling 14.01 the low price RIGHT before it took off, Here's my assessment:

The flash-mob storm has ended.

It's been trading now for about 4 hours (sortof, but yea).  All of expected open-crash-recover has subsided... and it looks to me like our new standard price is just below ~$16.5 (which is higher than TradeHill was at while MtGox was off, that's a good thing ).



A) Initial crash
B) steady, constant selloff.  Afterwhich there is the attempt to find that low-low price.
C) I called it here
D) Peak.  Attempt to re-crash and cash-out on the high price, but shortly after, that re-crash didn't want to happen.  I think this is the strongest evidence that the new price point is tightening.  This peak is $1 higher than TradeHill at the time.
E) Price finds a seady point.  TradeHill and MtGox are mostly even for almost 30 minutes now (was never matched from A-D) and the trade margins are tightly packed.

I think that if anything diverges from this point on (which could certainly happen), it's not related to the flash-mob.

Depth is very low down to about $15...could see a quick fall shortly.  Would take just 1 sale.  Current price is tenous so be careful.

Mark,

I'd love to believe in the $16.50 pricepoint, but I'm starting to see some large sell orders in the depth market chart appearing in the 16's and a massive sell for 2000+ at the $17 level. Should be interesting.....

It's to easy for them to be filling orders in the $16-17 range which is where they probably want the price due to rollback statements they made and delaying low ball stuff. Not saying this is happening but it reminds me of playing on the Pink Sheets and watching certain players screwing with the Bid/Ask just to drive the price, not to buy/sell then when they get it where they wanted they would buy/sell.

Better inflate your life preserver, that bridge you are under will get flooded by the rising bitcoin river pretty quickly. Face it, anyone who wanted to bail on Mt.Gox is already long gone, or in the process of transferring a balance. I don't mind someone saying they see a downtrend with some kind of rational thought behind it, but you're just a litany of "SELL SELL SELL" with very little logic behind your claims.

Rigging bid/offers? Are you for real?

Of course the exchange that had massive problems would further alienate their traders by messing with it.. OF COURSE!! (Rolling Eyes.)

Could be.  But at this point I would say the initial mob-flash and the dramatic ranges we wondered about have come to bare.  And by that, I mean we're now back to our regularly scheduled dramatically unpredictable prices. 

Knowing the mind of the Market is a difficult matter. It doesn't post on the forums, and it shows its thoughts only in charts and tickers after the fact.

In hindsight, it shouldn't be surprising that buyers are picking up where they left off in Mt. Gox as if no security breach had happened. They are reluctant to punish but quick to back bitcoin up like the true fanboys that they are. There is also profit to be made quick. They're only too glad Mt. Gox is back and have missed the days of thrilling rallies. They are thinking the Big Gox will only harden in the days to come, even if they curse MagicalTux for making much money again.

Oh, I see, so since it's "easy" for them - you imply they are?

Bottom line, you don't trust them - don't use them. It'll save us from your pedantic line of reasoning at the same time, bonus!

Depth to $13 is only 6200 BTC.

That's way WAY smaller than the last big selloff.