If someone were to try to take over the bitcoin network by developing a rival chain they would have to have a lot of money to throw away.
My analysis follows:
My computer cost - $700
My computer hash rate - 750 khash/s
My computer avg time to generate block - 3 days
Whole network blocks generated in 3 days - 2200
Whole network CPU power estimate - 2200*750 = 1.65 billion hash/s
Cost estimate for network takeover - 1.54 million $USD
Estimated Value of whole bitcoin economy at highest exchange rates - $53,640
The only thing I wonder about is what it would cost to rent a botnet to do this for me without actually buying all these computers.
Anyone have an idea?
Hmm... 1.54 million $USD is really peanuts in the grand scope of things. It's going to have to be a lot more expensive than that by at least a few orders of magnitude for Bitcoin to be well protected against this sort of thing. Then again, as the value of the bitcoin economy increases, more nodes should join in, raising the bar.
It seems like that until you think about how to actually implement this. If someone came to you and said "Here's 1.5 Million Dollars, I want you to corner the Bit Coin market", would you be able to snap your fingers and it be done?
No way, it would take planning, hardware purchase, hardware setup, someone to get the client up and running, need people to get the Internet connection up, funneling the coin to whoever it was that wants it all. It would time and every second that your shadow corp isn't running, that's another random person out there generating coin and raising the bar for the coin generator.
So by the time it's all said and done, you would be going back to that person to ask for another 1 million since the network got harder while you were getting setup.
People and Corporations try to "buy" the lottery all the time. Sometimes it works, but more times it fails because you just can't buy luck.
Maybe if that person had started with 1.5 million when this project first started, but now I think it's beyond a feasible and logistics point to game the system. It's like trying to shut down the Pirate Bay now
