That is partially but not entirely true. Pure speculative forces can make the price skyrocket. Already they have done so. The increase in the price of bitcoin from $0.25 to $100 had nothing to do with the expansion of the real bitcoin economy but only concerned speculation. Because bitcoin exists in parallel to a dramatically over monetized fiat based economy it is entirely possible for money to pour into bitcoins as a novel asset class. In an over monetised world, bubbles are the norm.
I agree with your conclusion, but not your reasoning. "Over monetized fiat-based economy" has nothing to do with Bitcoin value (not sure what you mean by "over-monetised", but my guess is "too much paper money"? What would "the right amount" be?)
For your interpretation to be valid, Bitcoin value would have to be (# of dollars in circulation) (# of coins in circulation) * (fudge factor). This is obviously not, and has never been, the case.
Bitcoin's value is speculative -- traders *bet* on how much *other traders* will be willing to pay for 1 BTC in the future. Understanding this is essential to investing in Bitcoin.
This doesn't mean that SD & SR aren't factors in Bitcoin's price -- they are. But exchanges -- where people trade Bitcoin -- are way more important.
I didn't say that I had the attitude of never using bitcoins I said I partially share it. I'm tight with fiat money so I'm in no hurry to spend bitcoins I don't have to.
I don't blame you. It costs me money to by bitcoins, i take risks using them to buy (no chargeback), there's no immediate incentive to buy with Bitcoin (most merchants accepting Bitcoin accept fiat, the prices are meh & selection is worse), while "buy back the bitcoins you spent is ... patently absurd -- it costs me time, markups, transaction fees etc., etc. -- just to get back to having the bitcoins i started with. All pain, all loss, 0 gain. The trick also has dubious value to Bitcoin velocity if my bitcoins are instantly converted to fiat anyway (BitPay).