In response to the various 'chase luck' comments.


*rolls eyes*  Statistical probability does not work that way.


Ok, I'll explain:

Much as you cannot predict the future with 1 quarter being flipped 10 times you can make a safer guess if you flip 10 quarters at the same time for 10 times ( whilst gambling cash on them, which is the reality of how this one works ).

1 quarter, 1 gamble, 50% chance of winning.  And if you get an unlucky streak of 3-4 flips you lose it all.

10 quarters, 1 gamble per coin, 50% chance of winning per coin.  For all 10 quarters to go bad for 3-4 flips ( enough to empty your wallet ) is a lot rarer than for 1 quarter to go bad for 3-4 flips.  It's the difference between spreading your bet or going 'all or nothing' ( 1 coin is all-or-nothing, where-as 10 coins is bet-spreading ).


So...

You bet £25.00 on 1 coin coming up heads.  You flip 2 coins, so gamble £50.00.  If you get it right you get £25.00 per head ( simple 1:1 odds ).  If a tail comes up you lose the £25.00 on that coin.

For both to come up tails or heads the odds is 0.5 * 0.5.  So there is a 25% chance you'll win big, but also a 25% chance you'll lose it all.

For one to come up heads, and the other tails, is 0.5 * 0.5 ( 25% again ), but... there are 2 ways this can happen.  Coin 1 gets the head, or coin 2 gets the head.  So that doubles your chance to 50%.

Both tails and you lose £50 ( all you gambled ).
Both heads and you get your 50 back plus another 50.

A head and a tail? You pay out 25 on one, and get 50 back on another ( your stake plus the win bonus ).  But there are 2 chances of this happening.  So...

25% you lose it all.
50% chance you gain £0 over-all.
25% chance you gain £50 over all.

With just one coin you'd be looking at a 50% chance of losing £50, and a 50% chance of gaining £50.00.  Only 1 chance to make money, with no safety net.  All or nothing.

With 2 coins you have 1 chance to make money, 1 chance to lose it, and 2 for breaking even.


If you have modern mining kit like S3's you'll be making a small profit if the break even, and a larger profit if you win.  If you lose you may well break even.  Because s3's have a good power ratio.

An old S1 will see you running at a loss if you lose, breaking even if you break even, and making a small profit if you win.  Near enough.  As their power ratio is nothing impressive these days.


It's like betting on the horses.  Spread your bet and you will lose less if you get unlucky generally speaking.  Unless you're cursed and they all come in bad, but the odds of that happening are a lot less.

This is how you do it on the gee-gees:

Favourites Index

This is the forecast of how the favourite will perform in each race at a specific race meeting. Points are awarded for finishing in the first three in the following way: 25 points for win, 10 points for second and 5 points for third. If there are joint or co-favourites, we take the favourite as being the horse with the lower race card number.

Example

’At the Southwell Fibresand card consisting of seven races, our favourite’s prediction might be 62-65 points. If you believed that the favourites in all seven races stood a good chance you would buy at 65 for a stake of. When all the results are in the final tally is made up of 80. You would have therefore won 15 times your stake: (65 - 80) x your stake = 15 x £/€5 = £/€75. But, if the favourites index had made up at only 50 points, the same bet would have lost you 35 times your stake: (50 - 85 x your stake = -35 x £/€5 = -£/€175'


Or...

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.


For BTC if you mine 2 pools and one goes bad the other pool will still be there.  So you'll only lose half of your cash, instead of all of it.  The odds of 2 pools going bad at the same time are less than they are for one pool going bad.


This is why professional mining gear can mine 3 pools at once ( from one unit ).  It's a standard safety feature, just in case one pool goes bad for a bit.


And if a horse is having a winning streak it's very easy to read the results for it, it's competitors, and then make a judgement call on who to bet on.


There are no guarantees sure, but it also means if you lose you won't lose badly compared to an 'all or nothing' system ( where 3-4 bad rounds is you gone, as you're only flipping one coin instead of 10 per round ).


Doc wants s3's, and to do that he needs to make it look like a safer investment then a bunch of people yelling 'casino' because they did not do degree level math ( I'm sorry, but I have to be honest here ).

Just because you don't get how it works does not mean it does not exist.  An entire race industry, that's been alive for at least 2000 years, has tried and tested this one.  You never put all your eggs in one basket unless you can afford to lose big.



That's the math.  Think about that before you miss-sell Doc's pool to new people.