2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Bear Market Resumes?Bitcoin has rallied 100% from the 6000 (Bifinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018.
A completed wave structure at 10271 was the first attempt at calling the top of a bear market rally, which failed. A subdivision of the wave structure took the market to 11250 which was the second failed attempt at calling the top.
Attempt #1:
https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/2711461.msg30389518#msg30389518Attempt #2:
https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/2711461.msg30521817#msg30521817 Since failure of calling the top at two previous junctures, Fibonacci resistance zones have been calculated as follows:
Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 1:
@11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
@11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
@11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).
@11528: Average Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 2:
@12100: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.382 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12100).
@12293: 38.2% retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
@12463: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.5 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12463).
@12285: Average Cumulative average: 11907 (Bitfinex).
As of 20-FEB-2018, the market appears to have completed a Triple Zig-Zag formation from 7851 to 11788, which is just a mere 119 points shy of the 11907 cumulative average of the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones.

In addition, weakening internals of an overbought RSI has been creating negative divergences against rising price action on the 4-hr.
Compounded with largest drop since the rally began on 06-FEB-2018, and trend-reversals occurring in popular Altcoins; there is reason once more to suggest the bear market rally has completed, and the second leg of the bear market may be underway.
It is always a precarious pursuit in attempting to call major market turns; nevertheless, third time lucky?!
Short position activated overnight (UTC midnight) at 10900, with an initial target of 4257 which represents a 78.6% Fibonacci decline of the entire Bitcoin market:
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
A more conservative trade would be to await until the market takes out the low of 10308 (Bitfinex) and 10279 (Coinbase) which is the current key level between the bulls & bears. And then, short positions can be initiated on bounces with a stop at 11788 (Bitfinex) and 11775 (Coinbase).
Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows (popular Altcoins included):












