This calculation implies bitcoin completely replacing gold.  I think that's unlikely.  However, bitcoin will take market share from gold and other forms of money.  And it will eventually be valued higher than gold due to its utility for commerce, it's decentralized nature, and its secure design (assuming we don't find any fatal technical flaws).  So, I like to think in terms of bitcoin reaching parity with gold, which would put its value at half the figure you came up with (or ~$200,000/btc).  But I think it will take at least 10 years to get there.

Why do you guys assume that the value of gold will stay at $1500/ounce? Bitcoin could easily exceed $10mio if the USD lost its global credibility.

Whether or not it ever reaches market share parity with gold is another issue... who knows. Perhaps one day the digitial nature will be seen as a boon rather than bane.

You all had some education at some point.  Did you skip out on critical thinking class?  You think it's reasonable for bitcoins to reach $200,000 each in ten years?

Well, we already witnessed 100-fold increases within 7 months - would it have been reasonable to predict that back then?
Nobody knows the future - we can only try to make good use of the historical data we have and of the mechanisms we believe to be at work for the future.

And yes, it is of course reasonable to assign a non-zero probability for a 200,000 USD Bitcoin in ten years. Same goes for all other values of course...

Oh what limited imagination you have
But I'll give you that - I think we can round those cases to 0%

Do you think he was talking about non-zero probability when he said:

"So, I like to think in terms of bitcoin reaching parity with gold, which would put its value at half the figure you came up with (or ~$200,000/btc).  But I think it will take at least 10 years to get there."

And then someone else jumped in to say that value might be understated?  I think we're talking about what's realistic and probable, not what's not-impossible.

Shortly after the world finally realizes that credit cards should be abolished for the good of society.

everytime i look at your name i see "groinkoin".   must be my twisted nature.

anyways its doesn't hurt to dream!

People do tend to overestimate the probability of some very rare events (that's why they play the lottery) but then again, market prices often reflects psychology as well, so - who knows...

I was just pointing out that your claim of some estimation being "unreasonable" is as hard to justify as everyone's else. Nobody knows the future, but if you already experienced a very rare event (dramatic price increase in short time) it is at least reasonable to think about possible underlying mechanisms which might have made the event not so improbable as you initially thought it to be.

Anyway, I personally don't think Bitcoin will ever be valued that high.

Finally we're talking numbers