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    Author Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again  (Read 40394 times)

    • BTC Economist (OP)
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    August 06, 2011, 03:08:51 PM
     #141
    Quote from: skyhigh on August 06, 2011, 02:21:22 PM
    OK BTC Economist, so let me try this way.  Lets say I'm well off, nice house, cars, business, family. Business makes me $350k per year after tax for the last 15 years, still growing steadily 10% yoy. Price of bitcoin is at $5.00 and I have a buy order of 1k willing to add 1k every $0.50 down to $1.50 where I would stop adding to my position. I would hold forever. If all would fill I have $26k on the line, with practically small chance of ever make it back.

    Do you think I would care what your opinion is? Who are you? Are you a top trader at SAC ? You ever work at least at GS ?? Do you own a $10 mill yacht and will fly me out and explain to me why I shouldn't risk this $26k I'm willing to put on the line, because I like this bitcoin idea? Why should I listen to you what I do with less than a month of profits?

    Well if you are just gambling, do as you please.  You don't have to listen to me.
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  • shmadz
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    August 06, 2011, 03:16:17 PM
     #142
    Quote from: BTC Economist on August 06, 2011, 03:08:51 PM
    Well if you are just gambling, do as you please.  You don't have to listen to me.

    Ummm, aren't all investments a form of gambling? I mean, sure it might be informed gambling, but come on man.

    if "investing" in a beta stage, open-source project isn't gambling, then I don't know what it is...

    maybe "donating" to the cause? I mean, at this point, all investors in bitcoin are essentially funding a start-up project, with the hopes that it succeeds and they will get paid off in the end.




    If you have more money in bitcoin than you are comfortable with losing, then I think you need to re-evaluate your "investment" strategy.
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  • skyhigh
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    August 06, 2011, 03:40:34 PM
     #143
    Thing is, everyone who joined after April and put money on the line is gambling. Especially people who bought coins when the price was above $15.00 and still haven't sold. Bitcoin for the masses is still totally new. Most of us got here when the price boomed from April $1 to June $30. Some started mining on a low scale, some went big, some started day trading on MtGox and some invested for the long run.

    Since price ran up from April $1 to June $30 everyone who ever traded anything in their lives KNEW this was a bubble about to pop. When it did pop a smaller % of them KNEW bubble needs to deflate and we are still in this process today. You and I will agree on that. What we might not agree on is the future of the bitcoin. You as far as I read or understand, you think bitcoin has no future and price will plummet down to sub $1 and probably stay there forever, eventually it will die. Me on the other hand see a potencial in the future.

    You might be right that bitcoin price will never reach $20 again, but that kind of speculation is just outright stupid to say. I figure you probably follow stocks and thing is that in most cases, like 85%+ you would be right. Once the stock ran its natural course it will most likely stay within a certain range forever. Not many run up exponentially for a while then totally collapse and run up again  in the near future. But bitcoin isn't a stock, its fundamentals are different. There is no trailing P/E we could associate it with or has earnings or profit margin or anything like that.

    Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a trading vehicle designed to work regardless of it's price in fiat money. It's functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100. People greed wants it to be worth more. Eventually bitcoin price will get low enough so fresh money added to the market will be able to meet up with the supply. I'm almost 100% certain that will ultimately happen. I think it will happen in the range from $1 to $5.

    I won't start buying before $6.00. I would rather miss the whole thing and forget about bitcoins all together then buy above that price or EVER chase it higher. But that's just me. When/if I will start buying, I know already the whole plan, which I might fine tune as we go along, but I won't ever go outside my comfort zone. I know exactly how much I will buy, when, how much it will cost me and when I will/might sell. There isn't anyone who could influence me in a way that I would change my plan drastically. I would/will still read what people are saying but not react on it unless the price/volume tells me so. That's how I made money in the past and will do so in the future.

  • BTC Economist (OP)
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    August 06, 2011, 04:04:22 PM
     #144
    Quote from: shmadz on August 06, 2011, 03:16:17 PM
    Quote from: BTC Economist on August 06, 2011, 03:08:51 PM
    Well if you are just gambling, do as you please.  You don't have to listen to me.

    Ummm, aren't all investments a form of gambling? I mean, sure it might be informed gambling, but come on man.

    if "investing" in a beta stage, open-source project isn't gambling, then I don't know what it is...

    maybe "donating" to the cause? I mean, at this point, all investors in bitcoin are essentially funding a start-up project, with the hopes that it succeeds and they will get paid off in the end.




    If you have more money in bitcoin than you are comfortable with losing, then I think you need to re-evaluate your "investment" strategy.

    Well what I was referring to was your previous post where you indicated someone might be investing an insignificant quantity of money in bitcoin that they don't care if they lose...that's fine.  However, most people don't have experience investing in junk bonds and that's basically what bitcoin is.  There's a huge difference between that and buying a mutual fund or share of Google.
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  • old_engineer
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    August 06, 2011, 04:52:35 PM
     #145
    Quote from: shmadz on August 06, 2011, 03:16:17 PM
    maybe "donating" to the cause? I mean, at this point, all investors in bitcoin are essentially funding a start-up project, with the hopes that it succeeds and they will get paid off in the end.

    This is exactly what I think of bitcoin "investing": as shares in a startup.  When a venture capital company gives $100M to a startup and takes a 10% stake, thus valuing the company at $1B, rarely is the company actually worth $1B at that point.  Like the 8 month old Square.com:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576383813592144744.html

    And I can guarantee that Bitcoin has more users, more publicity, and more man-years of development than Square, and is more deserving of $100M in capital.

    How much money has actually been put into the Bitcoin ecosystem?  I think MagicalTux said $6M in total transactions in June, so call it $4M in and $2M out, and perhaps $10M for the year.  Sure, some of that is going to speculators, but even if 1/10th of that is going towards supporting engineering effort, its comparable in money utilization to a startup.  So, sure, we might all be throwing our money away, but I think we all know that - we're in the speculation subforum, after all.

  • NetTecture
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    August 06, 2011, 05:09:12 PM
     #146
    There is one stupid thing the OP overlooks Wink Bitcoin will definitely hit USD 20 IF the USD goes into hyperinflation. THey will hit USD 1 billion a piece when a coke costs 100 billion USD Wink

    Not very likely, but: in the larger scale, USD 20 WILL be hit. NEVER say never to financial courses. They may not in 1-2 years, but hey - last time I checked, "never" covered longer timeframes Wink

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    August 06, 2011, 11:36:43 PM
     #147
    The lower it goes the faster it will go up once it bounces
    (I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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  • BTC Economist (OP)
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    August 07, 2011, 12:05:32 AM
     #148
    We are now around $6.50.  What a day!  Price has dropped about 60% since I started this thread.
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  • kano
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    August 07, 2011, 04:37:10 AM
     #149
    Bitcoin will go back up ...
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  • FlipPro
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    August 07, 2011, 04:37:54 AM
     #150
    Quote from: TiagoTiago on August 06, 2011, 11:36:43 PM
    The lower it goes the faster it will go up once it bounces
    Thats true...

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    August 07, 2011, 11:27:45 AM
     #151
    Hmm its on the way back up a bit for a while today ...
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  • Cluster2k
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    August 07, 2011, 11:41:46 AM
     #152
    Quote from: NetTecture on August 06, 2011, 05:09:12 PM
    There is one stupid thing the OP overlooks Wink Bitcoin will definitely hit USD 20 IF the USD goes into hyperinflation. THey will hit USD 1 billion a piece when a coke costs 100 billion USD Wink

    Some analysts say the USA is about to encounter a massive bout o deflation.  Japan has been trying to reinflate its economy for over 20 years, often with 0% interest rates.  Hasn't worked, won't work.  When debt is too high people won't borrow money even if it's free.

    Some commentators such as at The Automatic Earth state housing in the USA will fall about 90% from peak to trough.  Only a quarter of the way there so far.

    If US leadership does go nuts and has the Fed monetize all the debt, I would be invested in gold, silver and weapons.  No use holding a USB stick when hungry, angry, riotous hoards come visiting your middle class abode.

  • Piper67
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    August 07, 2011, 01:37:39 PM
     #153
    Quote from: Cluster2k on August 07, 2011, 11:41:46 AM
    Quote from: NetTecture on August 06, 2011, 05:09:12 PM
    There is one stupid thing the OP overlooks Wink Bitcoin will definitely hit USD 20 IF the USD goes into hyperinflation. THey will hit USD 1 billion a piece when a coke costs 100 billion USD Wink

    Some analysts say the USA is about to encounter a massive bout o deflation.  Japan has been trying to reinflate its economy for over 20 years, often with 0% interest rates.  Hasn't worked, won't work.  When debt is too high people won't borrow money even if it's free.

    Some commentators such as at The Automatic Earth state housing in the USA will fall about 90% from peak to trough.  Only a quarter of the way there so far.

    If US leadership does go nuts and has the Fed monetize all the debt, I would be invested in gold, silver and weapons.  No use holding a USB stick when hungry, angry, riotous hoards come visiting your middle class abode.

    Heh... The JAPANESE won't borrow free money when they're already in debt...the Americans? They'll have inflation  Cheesy

  • kiwiasian
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    August 07, 2011, 03:21:12 PM
     #154
    Heh, down to $6. To all those who called OP a troll: What have you say now?
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  • Bitcoin Swami
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    August 07, 2011, 03:37:25 PM
     #155
    Quote from: kiwiasian on August 07, 2011, 03:21:12 PM
    Heh, down to $6. To all those who called OP a troll: What have you say now?

    I'll let you know when we get past "never"

  • skyhigh
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    August 07, 2011, 03:37:44 PM
     #156
    Quote from: kiwiasian on August 07, 2011, 03:21:12 PM
    Heh, down to $6. To all those who called OP a troll: What have you say now?

    Can you read ?! Price $6 has nothing to do with what he said in the title or his opening post. Back to 1st grade you go.

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    August 07, 2011, 04:53:19 PM
     #157
    Quote from: skyhigh on August 07, 2011, 03:37:44 PM
    Quote from: kiwiasian on August 07, 2011, 03:21:12 PM
    Heh, down to $6. To all those who called OP a troll: What have you say now?

    Can you read ?! Price $6 has nothing to do with what he said in the title or his opening post. Back to 1st grade you go.

    If the OP knew about the crash of MyBitcoin.com, Bitomat, Dwolla, and the issues with Euro bank transfers so far ahead of time, WHY THE F*CK DIDN'T HE WARN EVERYONE?!?!?!?!?!

  • RandyFolds
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    August 07, 2011, 09:00:10 PM
     #158
    Quote from: kiwiasian on August 07, 2011, 03:21:12 PM
    Heh, down to $6. To all those who called OP a troll: What have you say now?

    Twat.

  • vulgata
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    August 07, 2011, 11:46:23 PM
     #159
    Quote from: skyhigh on August 06, 2011, 03:40:34 PM
    You might be right that bitcoin price will never reach $20 again, but that kind of speculation is just outright stupid to say. I figure you probably follow stocks and thing is that in most cases, like 85%+ you would be right. Once the stock ran its natural course it will most likely stay within a certain range forever. Not many run up exponentially for a while then totally collapse and run up again  in the near future. But bitcoin isn't a stock, its fundamentals are different. There is no trailing P/E we could associate it with or has earnings or profit margin or anything like that.

    Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a trading vehicle designed to work regardless of it's price in fiat money. It's functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100. People greed wants it to be worth more. Eventually bitcoin price will get low enough so fresh money added to the market will be able to meet up with the supply. I'm almost 100% certain that will ultimately happen. I think it will happen in the range from $1 to $5.

    I won't start buying before $6.00. I would rather miss the whole thing and forget about bitcoins all together then buy above that price or EVER chase it higher. But that's just me. When/if I will start buying, I know already the whole plan, which I might fine tune as we go along, but I won't ever go outside my comfort zone. I know exactly how much I will buy, when, how much it will cost me and when I will/might sell. There isn't anyone who could influence me in a way that I would change my plan drastically. I would/will still read what people are saying but not react on it unless the price/volume tells me so. That's how I made money in the past and will do so in the future.

    This is a key observation sorely missed by all the naysayers who are comparing this to a penny stock.  My plan is very similar to yours.

  • bitcoinBull
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    August 08, 2011, 12:41:02 AM
     #160
    Quote from: skyhigh on August 06, 2011, 03:40:34 PM
    But bitcoin isn't a stock, its fundamentals are different. There is no trailing P/E we could associate it with or has earnings or profit margin or anything like that.


    Difficulty is a sort of fundamental, and exponential increases in difficulty support corresponding increases in price.


    Quote from: skyhigh on August 06, 2011, 03:40:34 PM
    I won't start buying before $6.00. I would rather miss the whole thing and forget about bitcoins all together then buy above that price or EVER chase it higher. But that's just me. When/if I will start buying, I know already the whole plan, which I might fine tune as we go along, but I won't ever go outside my comfort zone. I know exactly how much I will buy, when, how much it will cost me and when I will/might sell. There isn't anyone who could influence me in a way that I would change my plan drastically. I would/will still read what people are saying but not react on it unless the price/volume tells me so. That's how I made money in the past and will do so in the future.


    When bitcoin was $1 the daily trade volume (on MtGox) was around $10k USD on low days and $50k USD on strong days.  By the time daily volume was above $100k+ on average, price was above $5 and on its way to $10 (volume was growing to a million).

    Unless we see a massive decrease in daily trade volume from the current $500k-$1m, down to under $100k, I'd be very suprised to see prices below $5.
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