Of course, the way the money printing is carried out is meant to help to support the investments of the well-to-do folks in society - through equities (which are tied to 401ks, pensions, etc), and even though bitcoin receives a decent amount of the trickle down (or whatever you would want to call it), that does not mean that fundamentals do not matter.

In other words, ignore fundamentals to your detriment (peril) in the event that you believe that BTC does not have any meaningful and substantial difference (in terms of fundamentals) from various other manipulated assets and currencies, eg.. equities, gold (including other Pms), collectibles, property, debt (including govt bonds), cash (USD as compared to other fiats) and/or any other place in which value might be stored or manipulated  (stealing of time, too?).

Have the recent large moves into BTC from Microstrategy had an impact on your thinking vis-à-vis the above?  I am still digesting it.  That amount of OTC buying certainly had to have had an effect on the spot market and probably dampened volatility and must have a palpable effect on the OTC markets, and it was big enough to probably do things to the price trajectory for the next 6 months in spite of whether other public companies follow that lead over the next 9-12 months and beyond.  This is especially true in light of the halving.  I feel like these forces are triangulating and they are going to... .... that's where it gets a little foggy for me.

The more I think about it the more I think we are in for an interesting shift fundamentally...  I do not understand it yet.

Sure, we are repeating themes, but it is NOT like we are sending private messages back and forth, and accordingly,  clarification, reemphasis, restatements may need to be carried out for the benefits and considerations of others.

By the way,  exstasie, you cut out half of my post (the second paragraph) in which I attempted to illustrate further upon the ideas of the first paragraph - and of course, I had not mentioned in terms of fundamental drives the three BTC price prediction models that I had already mentioned in other posts (and you have already poo pooed such models as non-correlation explanations) - which are: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking and metcalfe principles.  

Largely those three price prediction models are entwined with fundamentals that drive them in their predictive direction in a complicated combined kind of way and cause BTC's price to NOT be correlated to stocks, gold, currencies and various other assets previously listed in the cut out portion of my previous post.  

Don't get me wrong, the models are not causing the BTC's price to move, but they help us to better understand where we have been, where we are and where we are more likely to go... of course, in a non-correlated way from my reading and characterization of the situation.  

I am not even poo pooing short-term correlation, the effects of liquidity or even the effects of various kinds of momentum (which may be explained in chart analysis).. but merely the fact that some of these other short term influences are affecting BTC price dynamics - they are likely ONLY able to go so far in terms of longer term movements because of how BTC's fundamentals are distinguishable from all other previous asset categories - in a should be recognized paradigm shifting kind of way.  

You can look back at BTC's price from it's inception - and of course, I don't really like to go all the way back to the beginning, because it is NOT really fair based on how small the BTC market was and how narrow the ways to engage in price discovery... but going back to mid 2012 - is largely fair enough - even though BTC was still quite budding at that time, too...  but anyhow, we need to start somewhere... And, even if we go back to 2012, we do not just have a "magnitude" change in BTC's price appreciation, we also have price curves that do not follow the stock market, equities, gold etc.. and you can say, it is just magnitude.. blah blah blah.. NON-SENSE....  
BTC's price curves are different from any other asset... so see what you like, but I see that they are different, and there are many other people in the space that appreciate bitcoin as a different kind of asset class and are able to see different also.

Good luck with your under appreciating of the power of king daddy... even though you do seem to prepare yourself for UP, too... so you are not going to totally get reckt by your non-appreciation of the power of king daddy's UPpity - and hopefully you are not misunderstood by others in such a way that they are mislead or fail to buy, under invest, sell too much BTC too soon, buy some stupid ass shitcoin(s)(ICO, Defi, yield farm baloney) etc.  


There is quite a bit of information out there that Microstrategy bought the about 38,250 BTC on exchanges (one set of buys that were around 21.5k btc with 10s of thousands of transactions and the other set of buys for the remaining balance of about 16.75k BTC with another 10s of thousands of transactions (so that is not considered OTC), .... and they spread out there BTC buys over several weeks.. but still accomplished such buys pretty quickly in the whole scheme of things without seeming to have much effect on the spot price (not much slippage - which surprised their CEO Michael Saylor.. regarding how much BTC can be bought in a relatively short period fo time without moving the BTC price very much).

Here's a tweet from about a week ago that explains the first part of the transactions:

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1306636046948610049

Quote:
>>>>>>We acquired 21,454 BTC via 78,388 off-chain transactions, then secured it in cold storage with 18 on-chain transactions.  #Bitcoin scales just fine as a store of value.<<<<<

That is ridiculous.

I specifically said the opposite.

i said that the fundamentals underlying BTC cause BTC price movement, and the models merely attempt to describe and show. 

Do you really have an inability to appreciate what I actually said?  Or is it an "innocent" misunderstanding?


Of course, but so what?  If anything, with the passage of time, smarter money is going to continue to recognize the value proposition of BTC.. and such variety of asset bubbles - that is also attributable to long practices of irresponsible printing of cash, will end up gravitating into Bitcoin, even if it takes 20 to 50 years.. we are still going to likely witness shorter term movements into BTC.. like we are seeing now.. where we have seen historically and each 4 year fractal is likely going to allow recognition of that ongoing gravitation into BTC and surely profits for anyone who can actually see that happening in advance (by stacking sats, and because of BTC's asymmetric bet nature, such peeps will likely NOT need very much in order to profit stupendously in the coming years... 2 years, 4 years, 8 years, 12 years..- the longer the investment horizon the more likelihood that benefits will be quite noticeable in non-correlated ways).


Of course, you can see what you like.


I never said that it was not.


Because it is not true.. .even if you like to suggest that it is..., gotta look into nuance rather than saying that equities, gold, other assets, blah blah blah, went up 2x and bitcoin went up 150x..   therefore they both went up and therefore everything that went up is correlated to BTC. blah blah blah...  that is nearly pure nonsense talking.


The new paradigm has already happened.

Bitcoin is out of the tube... it has changed society irreversibly in a lot of ways....

Sure, there are likely going to continue to be more changes that come from bitcoin, but we need not wait for such changes in order to appreciate that a paradigm shift has already happened...


I was just responding to your ongoing seeming nonsense that tries to lump BTC in with all of those other asset classes and suggestion that BTC fundamentals do not matter.  Of course, there is going to be some truth in any statement, including your identification of various kinds of correlation and affects of monetary policies on BTC price movements, but you surely keep going steps too far in your assertions, from my perspective...

So we do not necessarily need to debate, but I do feel somewhat lured into showing different perspectives.. and your seemingly lack of appreciation of BTC fundamentals...

Yeah, sure, I agree that there are likely short periods of time in which BTC fundamentals get squashed by ongoing momentum, liquidity, manipulation blah blah blah.. but in the longer term, BTC fundamentals are still likely to end up coming through.. .just like they have in the past... even though there are far from any guarantees in regards to where things might be going.. but with any investment, those who are investing are going to bet on various possible outcomes and perhaps diversify somewhat in order to hedge various bets. and try to keep some of his/her own reasonable amounts of liquidity in order to get through tougher periods of uncertainties and even when prices of the investments might move in directions for longer and to greater extremes that are contrary to his/her expectations.


No need to take it personally.  I have no personal beef against you.

I am attacking your ideas that likely lead people to fail/refuse to adequately prepare themselves for up, wait  for down (or bet on down), and sell too soon.  I am not necessarily proclaiming that you are personally doing that, but the ideas that you spout out can justify people taking wrong actions in regards to their bitcoin holdings (or even meaningfully and adequately establishing bitcoin holdings).


I have been reading your statements differently.. .especially the ongoing assertions of correlation nonsense.


That's good.


I doubt that I am failing/refusing to recognize such.


That is not what happened.

Bitcoin was more of a free market, and had more of a free market reaction... of course, like you said they are all connected, but various parts are still going to perform differently based on what kinds of actions are taken or NOT taken. 

I am trying to figure out the what is... rather than the what if..

So many of us could both monday morning quarter back and also say the so many ways that they screwed up or that they are continuing to screw up.. and still at the same time, there continues to be a lot that we might not even know.. so probably, it is way better to try to figure out the what is rather than the what if..  even if sometimes some of the details of whether U travel restrictions are implemented, S bank is saved, or T politician embezzled money or U virus was treated inadequately or V ballots were not counted (or double counted)... or W bombs were dropped on X nation, or Y taxes and Z embargos were implemented...   

Surely, some of these kinds of details can have short-term effects in one direction or another and even end up having rippling long term effects on a variety of aspects of society whether we are talking about property, businesses, individual rights, and I am not even suggesting that they should not be accounted for - even while at the same time we have king daddy coming into the space like a honey badger and not giving any shits - even though in the short term, king daddy might appear as if it is similar to all of these other things when those who study the space and understand it are going to profit from being able to recognize and appreciate the various ways in which king daddy is distinguishable and has its own kind of contribution that sometimes might seem to go with the flow, but if you zoom out, the correlation is not as apparent as it had seemed..

... you don't even need the pejorative "conspiracy theory" angle, when the incentives are aligned and the system is open to being gamed/rigged, it will be rigged.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-jpms-precious-metals-trading-desk-manipulated-markets-crime-ring-within-bank

... just don't be naive. Financial markets have been a racket for a very long time and the Federal Reserve is the casino owner consortium of the biggest crooks in town.

Update from Masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HNutyDX7-Short-term-resistance/


He's anticipating a sharp pullback off the weekly upper BB, down to the lower bound of his channel, which is currently in the $10.5K area and rising:

This sounds really legitimate.

If he keeps trying sooner or later he is going to be correct, and then we can agree about how much of a smartie he happens to be...

Of all the threads on this forum, this is not the one for annoying perma bull gloating. Masterluc has earned that much. Why do you feel the need to come here just to insult him? Many of us obviously value his contributions, even if you don't.

He is just offering ideas, possibilities. Not guarantees or anything of that sort. That is the world traders exist in. I'd have thought you would understand that by now, but alas, you don't.

I came here to post basically the same thing.

The way I would put it, is a pullback to that channel low would be perfectly acceptable  as would be the 12k area and the MA.

That said... I also think we might breakout before too much of a pullback as well.  The way it is consolidating here now at least supports that idea.

Why would there be envy?

If someone keeps predicting down and getting it wrong and I am merely pointing out such a thing.  You can read envy all that you like.  It's not there.

Sure, I tend to get worried about many people failing and refusing to adequately prepare for up, and the down predictions will frequently contribute to such lack of preparations... especially when such down predictions are given more weight than they deserve, and I am not even necessarily saying that Masterluc has been attempting to attract such over reliance, but sometimes his followers will give more weight to his various ongoing down squiggly lines than they deserve (and so it can be nice to see when  down predictions do not happen, but they continue to be made).  Yes, down reliance can end up running  into a lack of UP preparations that I have mentioned.

Surely, I have explained that in several other posts that I have made (and sometimes no explanation is needed in order to poo poo squiggly lines), including explanation that I have made in other back and forth interactions that I have had with exstasie in other threads.