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    Author Topic: Lightning Network Bitcoin scaling question  (Read 509 times)
    thecodebear (OP)
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    April 15, 2018, 03:18:22 PM
    Merited by suchmoon (2), ABCbits (2), narking (1)
     #1

    So as we all know the Lightning Network is supposed to be the big bad thing that solves Bitcoin scaling.

    Is it just me or does it seem that Lightning Network is only one piece of what Bitcoin needs to scale?

    Here's my thinking:
    Lightning Network you have to open and close payment channels on the blockchain. Your funds are stuck in the payment channel until you close it. So if you are a company using the Lightning Network to get paid you are gonna probably have a bunch of different payment channels open and occasionally close them in order to actually get your money. And as a company selling things you're not going to be sending that money back out through the payment channel, so there is no reason to just keep the payment channel open to make payments, you're just gonna close them to get the money every once in a while. Let's say the company closes a payment channel on average once a month, though likely i think it'd be a shorter period than that.

    For consumers, you're gonna open a payment channel with some funds, now occasionally you might get more money from people sending you money like how people use venmo. But generally if you're using LN to buy things your funds are gonna run out even if your friends occasionally send you money venmo-style, so you need to close the payment channel in order to make a new one with new funds. Lets say the typical person funds there payment channel for a month, so you can pay your monthly costs and then you make a new one.


    Now for the math:

    So if we assume for simplicity sake every payment channel closes after a month, this means a new corresponding payment channel must be opened as well, so two onchain transactions per month to open and close a channel. Lets just lump companies and people into one group called users, and so give each user two onchain LN transactions per month. With segwit fully adopted lets say Bitcoin can handle 6 transactions per second on average. 6 txs x 60 sec x 60 min x 24 hrs x 30 days = ~15.5 million LN payment channel opening and closings per month. Now lets divide that by two since each user has two channels open/close operations each month and we get about 7.75 million users.

    Less than 8 million users can use LN! Don't we want Bitcoin to scale to a global level in which it can at the very least handle hundreds of millions of users, if not billions. And with the current Bitcoin network we're limited to less than 8 million with LN. That is a very significant problem to consider. And of course I haven't even mentioned actual onchain transactions, which will compete with LN channel openings/closings for space on the blockchain. And since in december 2017 during that mania phase the BTC fees went over $50 because the blockchain was so clogged we can certainly assume that onchain txs in the next couple years (not even counting LN) will far outstrip the blocksize even with segwit fully adopted. This means that the blocks will likely be full with high fees even without LN channels being added to the blockchain. So the actual number of LN users that are likely is far far lower than 8 million.

    Doesn't this show pretty obviously that Bitcoin needs larger blocks or else even the LN is gonna be pretty useless when it costs either a lot of money or a decent amount of money and a several day wait just to open or close a payment channel? Especially when you consider most use cases for the LN simply aren't current Bitcoin use cases. LN is more economical for small purchases. But Bitcoin usage for small purchases right now is probably near zero. So LN doesn't lessen demand for onchain txs, it just opens up new use cases for bitcoin, which means it does open up new use cases for allowing Bitcoin to be a payment network, but it doesn't really do anything to solve the current scaling problem. Onchain txs will continue to grow and LN doesn't do anything about that. And segwit only doubles the throughput. Bitcoin needs many times more onchain scaling that what segwit provides to make onchain txs and LN usable as usage grows.

    Thoughts about this?

    I have two main thoughts about this:

    1. Blocksize can't be realistically increased to hundreds of megabytes (or even tens of megabytes) that it would take to make Bitcoin scalable to global mass market participation. It would make the network run horribly and make it highly centralized which would lead to the failure of the coin. However Bitcoin does need some sort of manageable blocksize increase to say 4mb or 8mb just to handle the demand in the next couple of years. But this is a temporary solution.

    2. Side chains - is this the only real solution? I don't know much about side chains, how it would work exactly or their technical feasability. But if you have some network of child sidechains that handle a set of txs and everyonce in a while square back up with the main bitcoin blockchain that would seem to solve the problem. I imagine each tx from a sidechain would be very large since it moved a bunch of money around. So let's just say the bitcoin blockchain can on average handle one sidechain tx (the sum of all sidechain txs) each second and sidechains square up with bitcoin once each block (once ~10 min). Sidechains you have much quicker blocks so their txs get confirmed much faster, though i guess a tx would still need the main blockchain confirmations to be truly confirmed. Anyways, at a rate of one sidechain squaring up with bitcoin per second you can have about 600 sidechains. If each sidechain can handle the throughput of the original bitcoin blockchain (1mb every 10 minutes) then it would allows bitcoin to scaled by hundred of times its current ability. This is global scaling ability. The exact numbers are just guesses of course, maybe one sidechain squaring up with bitcoin would actually take up more than one second worth of txs on the main blockchain. But this seems theoretically the only doable way to truly scale bitcoin.
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