Might point is for Bitcoin to be adopted for wide usage it needs to be as easy/convenient to use as current centralized options.
Bitcoin already is adopted for wide usage. It has FAR more usage now than it did in 2013. It had FAR more usage in 2013 than it did in 2009.
That's WHY we are talking about scaling and the related issues, BECAUSE bitcoin continues to be adopted for wider usage.
Build useful tools, the market will find ways to use those tools. It is impossible to know what people will be doing in 10 or 20 years. Any attempt to predict the future of technology is futile. All we can do is build ever better tools that provide more options and then wait to see what the market does with those tools.
LN is just another tool providing yet another option. Many people WILL be online when they are making their transactions. As such, THOSE people will have LN as a low cost option to take nearly instant transactions off-chain without a centralized third party. Doing so will free up space in the blockchain for those that need/desire a decentralized solution while they are offline, reducing congestion and cost on the blockchain. Furthermore, as you've already pointed out, the "average person will choose to trust a third party". For low risk transactions and small values there are MANY people that will gravitate to centralized solutions for exchanging Bitcoin value. Those transactions ALSO will not be on the blockchain and will free up space for those that need/desire it.
There is no reason to think that additional tools won't be developed in the future to improve the scaling even more.
Perhaps someday everyone will be using Bitcoin every day. Perhaps Bitcoin will never be more than a niche currency for special use cases. Perhaps Bitcoin will become a backbone for settlement between local providers of value exchange. The point is for bitcoin to be a decentralized, global, trustless, permissionless payment system. The market will decide the best use case for that system with the available tools at any moment in time.
On-chain doesn't scale, which is why we have LN, but to send money to an offline counter-party you can't use LN, so those types of payments don't scale because they have to be on-chain.
LN scales just fine for online transactions.
Offline transactions can choose between on-chain solutions, or centralized solutions, or whatever new tools are created in the future. Do you have any good tools you'd like to suggest to allow offline, decentralized transactions at scale? If not, then all we can do is wait until someone else comes up with one. Meanwhile, we'll scale where we can.
People are going to make the decision to use Bitcoin based off of features.
And LN offers a new feature that wasn't there before. As such, people that wouldn't have chosen Bitcoin before may choose to do so now.
For instance being able to can send money to anyone in the world easily and cheaply from their computer or phone and they'll have it in one hour and you don't have to wire the money or have have the same bank.
Or, being able to send money nearly instantly, easily, and cheaply from their computer or phone to anyone in the world that is online?
But if you can only do that when they are online with their LN running and you can only receive money the same way or instead do on-chain and pay what will eventually be untenable fees that means less utility, therefore less users.
The number of users will grow to match the utility. LN adds utility, it doesn't reduce it. As such, the number of users will increase, not decrease. LN isn't taking away the ability to perform on-chain transactions, it is just adding an option for online (off-chain) transactions.
You're saying people can choose if they want to use bitcoin or a standard centralized service. Well of course. But isn't the point to get them to use Bitcoin, but that will only happen if the UX is as good as current options, and needing to be online 24/7 for LN cuts out an important use case for bitcoin.
I'm saying people can choose if they want to use bitcoin AS a "standard centralized service" (such as Coinbase.com) OR if they want to use bitcoin as an online instant service (such as with LN) OR if they want to use bitcoin as an offline approximately 1-hour service (such as with on-chain transactions) OR if they want to create a new tool for using bitcoin (there is no permission needed to create any tool you can think of).
It's that flexibility that allows bitcoin to grow and expand to the limits of what the users can think of for as long as it exists.