It could mean the opposite, too. When everyone waits for a crash, expect many trapped bears.
Thanks for the data!

Is this data directly available from bitstamp or was it sourced elsewhere?  Just curious where to look for the raw data.

could you work in percentages?

eg 200 -> 220 (+10%): volume =
220 -> 242 (+10%): voluime = ...

Also, using USD instead of BTC would help.
Check bitcoinity options (show volume in Currency)
plot graph over 6m, you'll see the volume keeps increasing

I've bolded the USD figures for those trades. and that has remained pretty consistent until $1100 was breached. Also, Nov 30 has only just begun in the US and we don't know what sort of trading day we will see yet. About US$100 million more has been traded above $500 than below. I think the drop in btc volume is probably because people are still thinking of the value of btc in $US terms


Edit: sgbett and I had the same thought 

Thanks for collating, data is always good.

I think it's extremely important to keep in mind that MtGox has quite recently started offering 0% trade fees. So it's really not so much of a surprise that the Bitstamp volume from $1100-$1199 has been thin.

1. It is undeniable that volume has dropped both in BTC and in USD terms. It is not insignificant that it drops by 20%, 30% or so. These are the warning signs that should not be discarded.

2. It would be mathematically better to work on percentages, but I wanted a visually pleasing way + there was a technical reason (truncate to -2 decimals) that I chose this one.

3. Data is public in:
Bitcoincharts.

4. In Bitstamp, Thanksgiving is not a big thing.

5. The lowered volume indicated that there is an overhang on the sell side. Current holders are unwilling to sell as much as is otherwise rational, because they want a better timing. That we went +500% and they are still waiting.

6. USD volume has certainly increased during this period. This proves that there has been much new interest. Since the price has been climbing exponentially (with a daily exponent of 6.3% over 27 days), they have generally invested all of it quite quickly. This can change in a heartbeat.

7. On average, bitcoin's value appreciation works so that during every double, existing holders sell 17%. In November this has definitely not been so. There will have to be a constant exponential increase of new money coming in (via a dysfunctional or non-existent infrastructure), or a crash. Probably both. And several times a year. At this point, anyone who denies the existence of either, is delusional, and deserves the pain.

Thanks, I was just looking at the data and it seems.

• We've had about 14 hours of trading where the weighted average price was between $1100 and $1199.
• We've had 80 hours of trading where the weighted average was a price of $800-899
• We've had 180 hours of trading where the weighted average was between 200 and 300.

.

I'm not a statistician but I'm curious if the hours of trading at a particular price should be noted at all when looking at total volume for a certain price level?

Low volumes on Bitstamp are to be expected, since the rise from 500 to 1000 took place on BTCChina.

Both Gox and Stamp were mostly silent as they watched the Chinese bull run. Of course the price takes a discontinous jump then.

It would be interesting to see if your numbers still hold true if you look at the four big exchanges together. I suspect that trade volume was larger this time than in March (thereby implying that the correction will be shorter and faster) but it would be interesting to find out if that's true!

That depends what you want to prove. I want to raise the awareness of the scenario that we have been going too far too fast, which means that odds are no longer wildly stacked on our favor (as usual), just reasonably stacked. Both the fact that we cross price levels quickly and that the volume is low, testify to the increased risk.

We are at 3.5x the exponential trendline just now. Iirc, the intraday bubble top in April was 4.3x. Especially worrisome thing is that not even one is analyzing these things with any scientific/mathematical fashion except me. The complacency has indeed reached the levels of April, where any newb thinks that he has become a genius by buying in 9 days before, and any cashout by older members is ridiculed.