Really?

Sounds like there are some zerohedgers here..

There are two interesting issues surrounding Mr. Armstrong.

1) That he was held in jail without being charged or convicted of a crime for seven years by a judge for being in "contempt of court"
2) His claim (to date unverifiable) that he has perfected or at least vastly improved on Kondratieff Wave analysis via computer modeling.

The first issue is simple judicial tyranny. It should bother any US citizen that someone can be held in jail for seven years without being charged, tried, or convicted of a crime. However, I am most interested in Armstrong's claim to have perfected Kondratieff Wave analysis.  

I would note that Armstrong is far from the first to promote the use of very long term cyclical modeling of the economy. Modeling of this type can be traced back to Nikolai Kondratieff who identified four stages of cyclic behavior and identified the as spring, summer, autumn and winter. Kondratieff calculated that a complete cycle or wave lasted for approximately 53 years. He published his theory in 1925 in his book "The Major Economic Cycles". Kondratieff overlaid his wave on world history and projected it forward.



Kondratieff also noted that those same 53 year economic cycles could be relied upon to mark major world conflicts. Below is the 53 year war cycle that was derived from his work and nestled within that a 17.7 year war cycle.






The best discussion of Kondratieff Wave analysis that I have come across was published by Grant Williams in his superb article The Consequences of the Economic Peace
(Note clicking the link will prompt you to sign up for the newsletter this can just be closed to proceed to the article)

So what happened to Mr. Kondratiev? He was accused by the soviets of being a member of a "Peasants Labour Party". Convicted as a "kulak-professor" and sentenced to 8 years in prison. In September 1938 during Stalin's Great Purge, he was subjected to a second trial, condemned to ten years without the right to correspond with the outside world and executed by firing squad on the same day the sentence was issued.
 

Skepticism is a very appropriate response. I am about as far from an expert on this topic as you can get but here is what I have found
in my own quite limited research.

Question #1 Is there any actual solid statistical analysis to show these Kondratieff cycles really exist.

I found this very interesting statistical analysis of Kondratieff waves.
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9jv108xp#page-1

These authors did a tremendous amount of work on Kondratieff waves or K-waves and world GDP dynamics.
Their analysis supports the existence of a K-wave with a period of 52-53 years with a level of evidence or p value between 0.04 and 0.05.  
With data like this it cannot be argued that this is something totally made up. Advocates of K-waves may be wrong in their assumptions
or analysis or they may be wrong in arguing that any cyclical behavior seen in the past is predictive of the future but there is at least some
data to indicate that K-waves are real.

Question #2 Does K-wave analysis actually predict war

Here I have struck out. I have not found any source nearly as compelling as the the statistical analysis on GDP dynamics. I cannot answer your question
about the war cycle graph because I have not found a solid enough reference to back it up.  

Hashman, Armstrong is legit. He had even people collecting data from the archives of newspapers around the world, he spent $10 million in the 1970s to collect ancient silver coins so he could build the only detailed accurate chart of silver money of the Western Roman Empire. He claims he has spent over $1 billion (inflation adjusted) on data for his machine learning model of the global economy. The machine decided that international capital flows are what drives the economic shifts of the nations.

Considering how accurate his model as been (predicting events to the day, decades in advance), I believe him. You have no clue, until you dig. Read the entire Mad Max thread and bring yourself up to speed. Or don't. I don't care.

whats really funny is that it took us, the general public more or less 100 years to realise the extent of this crime against humanity and fraud that our current banking system is. as soon as even few find out how this (or any other) system operates it stops working properly as everybody starts taking advantage of it reducing profits/power of those who invented it. i believe that this is thanks to internet and extremely good communication technologies that we are able to use. now. whatever new design these guys are gonna come up with in future (bretton woods 2 happened behind closed doors one month ago) it will definitely be much more complex and sophisticated. though for it to be prolonged they absolutely must reduce the ability for us to communicate as its getting out of order and masses become too clever having access to all the free information. the next stage has to be an attack on the internet or for it to be controlled and eventually contained. its highly questionable whether this is possible at all.