New price for AntMiner S1: 0.414 btc   each one, shipping cost included.
No coupons (+~10%) anymore and rising difficulty (+~13%) today and the price decreased only about 0.005 (-~1%).
Do I have made something wrong? I hoped bitmain would have droped the price much more, but they only adjusted it a little bit.
Yes you didn't factor in the price appreciation. Add that and your formula should equalise.
The btc prive increased about 25%, so the S1 should be 25% cheaper which is not the case.
The coupons are removed, the gave a discount of about 10%, so the bitmain price is in real 10% higher now.
At least the S1 price should drop minimum about 25%-30%.
After that there will be a 13% rise in difficulty, making the machines mine btc 13% less.
I can follow you why the bitmain price seems correct to you...
When we consider about the intrinsic value of the device, the price should lower. But here in the btc world the miner price will go up or down with respect to the underlying, btc.
BTC +47% (440 -> 650), Difficulty increase 18%, i.e., roughly 29% increase in Antminer price will be equal to No increase/decrease in price.
*The above are rough estimations. I will not say the above is 100% correct. Period of consideration: ROI, BTC price considered constant at 650.