i think that the big "unknown" of this hard fork will be the reduction of block reward from 3 to 2.
Right now, a miner who find a block, knows that he will have 3*x, where x right now is 150$, after 01/16, he will have 2*x.
Is it a reason to make value of x higher?
I find this reduction a bit extreme and dangerous under the current circumstances, a slower reduction, like a reduction of 0.2 ETH every 1 month for 5 months.
When I'm saying "current circumstances" I'm talking about the reduced interest of miners and the hefty mining rewards after a big rush to buy GPUs. With a lot of GPUs "sitting" somewhere, it's dangerous to suddenly throw out miners hopping that a price increase will bring them back later on.
I'm afraid of how hard will it really be to attack the network after the fork...