One advantage of PPLNS is that you don't have to wait around potentially forever to find out how much you're going to make.

So that 4.72% (with transaction fees you'd get 102.72%) is solely due to orphans? That seems like a very high orphan rate.

Well, if you add in transaction fees, which apparently you're doing, then 100% is quite possible.

Sure it matters. The people at the very end of the shelved share list have virtually no chance of ever getting paid for those shares, in large part because the block rewards keep going down and the difficulty keeps going up.


Are you assuming the pool will last forever?

Eventually Eligius will cease to exist. Probably before Bitcoin ceases to exist, and probably during our lifetimes for that matter.

At that point, if there are any shelved shares, then Eligius has paid out less than 100% PPS (including transaction fees) minus orphan %. Those shelved shares are never paid.

No, I simply made a mathematical statement of fact.


As I said.

You apparently are not understanding why the shelved shares persist for any extended period in the first place.  Those shares statistically are the "minus orphan %", not in addition to it, and it is to be expected that not all of them will ever be paid, barring some ridiculous amount of luck. This doesn't change that the long term (6+ months) variance in % shares rewarded wont average out to roughly 100% minus orphan %.

The shelved shares are orphan %, plus bad luck %, plus block withholding %, minus transaction fee %... Right?

Well as I've occasionally said before, when orphan a block you should perhaps just dump 25 BTC of shares, not put them back on the share log. That keeps the expected value of shares going on to the log equal to the shares coming off.

This would mean the pool empties the share long more often, and I don't know the specified behavior under that condition. Theoretically this can already happen with a run of very good luck (but is unlikely). Perhaps this would satisfy people who say that the share log will never empty and therefore expected value is lower than PPLNS. Given the cumulative effect of orphans they are correct in finite time and possibly even in infinite time. It would increase variance a bit, because orphaned shares would not be paid, ever.

This would mean the pool empties the share long more often, and I don't know the specified behavior under that condition.

So, what's your definition of 100% PPS?

In the case of Eligius, it would go toward the extra credit under the old system.

That's why it's not 100% expected value. If you get unlucky, you get unlucky. If you get lucky, the reward goes to the people who mined before you.

Any new miner basically starts with a fresh slate, and their shares enter the top of the share log with an estimated reward of 100% immediately.

Any new miner basically starts with a fresh slate, and their shares enter the top of the share log with an estimated reward of 100% immediately.  Older miners have zero effect on this, ever.

The expected long term reward with any pool reward system, unless the pool is somehow subsidizing orphans (which means it probably has a fee in excess of the orphan % anyway...) is 100% PPS minus orphan % minus fees (if any).

You don't understand how the system works, please make sure you understand properly before making FUD-ish statements like this.