He was very concerned by hoarding, which would possibly make the early adopters stupidly rich. We agreed Shatoshi cashing out would probably signal the end of bitcoin.
The part he missed is that simply holding Bitcoin does not earn you wealth, unlike cash or stocks. If/when Bitcoin stabilizes, and they become filthy rich, the only way for them to benefit from their wealth will be to sell i, trade it for cash/stocks/bonds, or use it to start a business. Either way their bitcoin will end up getting redistributed into the economic system.
Anyway, at the end of our discussion, I came up with a theory that explains the price of bitcoin over that past year or so:
<phillipsjk> Bitcoin does have some real value as a medium of exchange (asside from speculation). The problem is that hoarding has overshadowed that. The bubble may have simply been because it was being used as a medium of exchange by new hoarders coming on board.
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<phillipsjk> As the new people hoard instead of spend, the value slowly declines again.
Essentially, your bitcoins are only really valuable if they are being spent.
This doesn't seem to follow the hoarding = decreased supply = increased price basic econ theory. Sure, hoarding may support the price artificially, but I don't see how it can make the price go down. Can you elaborate please?