If the ETF doesn't get approved, we may see a price decrease but the only reason for that is that people pay too much attention for this kind of events even though they're not that important.
For the long term though, nothing except the active development will bring bitcoin to a higher price.
We will see a run up leading to it just like we did previously, we now know we only need one more sec commissioner to get on board to have it be a 2v2 call though. The next ETF is more likely based off who is filling is the rumor right now.
but the real question which OP is also asking here is whether we even need ETF for the rise or let me add one more: should we even care about ETF?
i'd say ETF is more damaging to bitcoin than it can do good for it. and maybe it is time to stop waiting for it and go back to the way things were before meaning everyone focusing on decentralization and adoption of bitcoin while showing the middle finger to all the centralized entities including SEC.