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    Author Topic: Bitcoin is dead & I predictied it - let's channel our discontent into OWS!  (Read 5441 times)
    niemivh (OP)
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    October 18, 2011, 12:05:33 AM
     #1

    Revolutionaries!  Activists!  Those are fed up with being a slave! 

    Listen closely for the love of all that is good!

    I predicted this Bitcoin collapse a while back (you can go look and see that I was right).  It happened just like I thought it would.

    This system (things modeled like Bitcoin) can't work and are as unworkable as the 'systems' that are proposed by the 'resource-based-economy' folks over at the Zeitgeist movement.  I believe I've already explained why in the long-hand version, but I'll make a quick, bullet point summary here:

    1)  Bitcoins or any crypto-currency (CC) doesn’t fundamentally represent useful work.  Dollars and fractional reserve currencies have their problems in this area but by and large they do represent useful work – to the extent that they don’t is much a cause of our present economic crisis.  Earning CC for securing the network is the same as everyone printing money and saying that they are preventing counterfeiting, no labor was performed to acquire the CC and therefore it has no inherit value.  When people say that the US dollar is backed by nothing they are wrong.  It is backed by the output capacity of the USA.

    2)  The amount of crypto-currency must be either issued: A) By an algorithm that only allows for a fixed allotment at certain intervals.  B)  At someone's discretion.  If it is "B" then you are back at where you started with the problem that resides in central banking - that it is at someone's discretion to grow (or shrink) the money supply.  Disregarding the fact that this is something that can work toward the public interest as it did with the 1st and 2nd Banks of the US under Hamilton and Biddle respectively, this is something that would have to be controlled by legal recourse as an only way to secure the network.  Obviously, this isn't the idea of anyone here, nor is it even worth discussing further.  With regard to "A" the problem that arises is that the demand and supply will seldom match each other with regard to the issuance of the CC "money supply".  If the supply roughly correlated with the demand for CC you'd see relative price stability.  What we saw with BTC was these two things having no rough correlation at all, where the price would be going up and down like a roller coaster.  So setting the creation of the currency at a fixed rate has the inescapable problem of never being able to manage the wild increase and decrease of its demand with regard to any price stability.  And that's fine if you want to have 'free market experiments' but you'll never be able to attract a large body of merchants with such a system.

    3)  The fact that Moore's law exists.  In order to set a certain fixed growth of the money supply you need to tie it to a certain amount of algorithmic work performed.  Herein lays yet another problem.  Moore's law says that hardware performance increases at a certain rate, meaning that the difficulty of the block chain must evidentially hit a virtual ‘wall’ where the best hardware available cannot create enough coins to pay the power bill.  There is also an issue of 'opportunity cost', but I’ll get to that later.  There was one ‘solution’ for the problem of the price of BTC being too low to justify mining, and that was Transaction Fees.   But for this fee structure to work it requires that there be a bustling economy in the CC world.  Since the CC ‘market’ has this problem and the other inherent problems numerated, each alone that would (and did) destroy the CC project as a viable alternative to other currencies, no ‘bustling market’ was ever forthcoming, only some very small market operations.

    4)  Opportunity Cost and CC Distribution.  It would be impossible to fix the amount of currency issued even close to the demand of the currency, much less be able to compensate for the fact that you are going to always have to deal with the eventual conflux of the block chain difficulty hitting the Moore’s law wall.  The fact that in a system such as this Moore’s law will always provide a much tilted structure for CC distribution due to Opportunity Cost.  When any CC emerges the difficulty must be low in order to entice people to join the project as a means of furthering it for financial gain and ideological reasons.  It couldn’t start out by requiring that the people buy $500 video cards in order to make a small amount of CC, if it did the project would never get off the ground.  It must start with almost $0 opportunity cost, which is what we saw with Bitcoin where people were earning large quantities of Bitcoins by running the program on laptops with Celeron processors.  It must evidentially become harder for the system to mine CC as it goes on or else the first-comers have no reason to begin the project and sacrifice the time in building it all up.  Here is where another problem occurs; although it is necessary to have this structure in order to spread the systems popularity, like a “gold rush”, it causes the total amount of the CC to be very unevenly distributed.  In fact the Bitcoin inequality and mis-distribution makes our existing wealth disparity in this country (USA) look like some Marxist Utopia. 

    5)  The hack-ability of the client.  As this is effectively eCash on your disk drive that only requires read access to steal from anywhere in the world, there will always be a large drive to crime in any area this easy to illegitimately make money.  At its peak it had roughly a $200 million dollar market cap, if a CC system ever had a $200 Billion market cap (where you could literally have thumb drives with billions of dollars on it), can you imagine the underground crime syndicate that would grow up around this market in trying to steal and hack everything CC related?  What is your recourse if your money is stolen from an employee?  If your key is destroyed?  Etc? 

    Once again, all this is fine if you want this to be an “experiment”, but be aware that it will never be anything more than an experiment if it doesn’t overcome these challenges.

    Seeing as all of this –actually, any of this, totally ruins the potential for a CC to ever supplant a national currency, at least until REAL solutions are created for each of this failings then any CC project that doesn’t learn from Bitcoin’s demise will mimic its failure.  I’ve spend a lot of time on Bitcoin and it taught me an incredible amount for the thousands of dollars I lost in speculating with it.  I consider the money I lost well worth what I’ve learned.

    Seeing as the above is incontrovertibly the case to all those who aren’t wearing Bitcoin-Cult-Blinders would anyone who would like to make positive change help me with regard to the OWS (Occupy Wall Street) movement?  I’m up in the Portland Oregon area and could use help distributing fliers (already distributed 2000+ of them and they are proposing the best and most well organized system compared to all the other ideas floating around out there) and implementing all manner of ideas I have around something that has real potential to make a positive difference.   Just reinforcing for you (that is if your mind is open to reason) that Bitcoin is terminal and dying, and all your energy would actually yield something worthwhile if it were vested in something that has potential, and OWS appears to be that thing if we can interject the right programmatic changes to the movement before it gets hijacked by other political players.

    If you want to get hold of me to help the OWS movement please email me at "revolutionmeow@gmail.com". 
    I’ll post my economic recovery plan in the next post.  If you’d like to help me further this plan then please let me know; many hands make light work, and it is going to be impossible to avert us going off a financial cliff without people like you and the help you have the power to contribute.  I need people that can understand good economic principles when they are put in front of them, people with web experience, people with marketing skills or ability to do research projects and gather information.  If you read any economic books you can get your hands on, like myself, or much better actually have worked in finance or have an advanced degree in economics or related fields please get in contact with me, it could be the beginning of a beautiful collaborative relationship.  If you have anything to offer please hit me up as I have all manner of ideas and limited time and resources to implement them.


    I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

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