I think you'd need to discount it far more than 50%. Some of us (like myself) have not received any LTC over the four payment rounds, and in the past 6 months
no one has received a payment.
Vircurex seems to have abruptly ceased paying back funds after August 2014.
Around 124984 LTC was frozen; only 120.62 LTC has been paid back, and for each of the payment rounds the amount returned was decreasing (ie, the total amount of LTC paid back each month was approaching zero... even before Vircurex just stopped paying!)
Given the tiny and fast decaying payback rate, and the complete lack of any released funds in the past 6 months, I'd say the chances of ever seeing even a small fraction of your balance are virtually nil.
