<<  >> (p.7)
    Author Topic: N. N. Taleb's Book: "Fooled by Randomness"  (Read 194 times)
    OROBTC (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline

    Activity: 3150
    Merit: 2066



    View Profile
    August 24, 2018, 11:50:50 PM
     #1

    ...

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an important author best known for making the phrase "Black Swan" famous, a Black Swan is a low probability event, that also is unpredictable yet has a huge impact.  Perhaps the best example of a Black Swan is September 11, 2001.  In fact, his most famous book is The Black Swan, the book I would like to introduce is his just-prior book, Fooled by Randomness.

    Taleb is of Lebanese-Greek-Orthodox origin, his family was in Lebanon for centuries and came to accumulate wealth and political power there.  The Lebanese Civil War wiped out most of their wealth.  N. N. Taleb now lives in New York, he has been a professor and had many years as an independent quantitative trader.

    *   *   *

    Perhaps the main theme of his book is that randomness is much more prevalent in the world (including and especially in financial markets) than almost everybody recognizes.  This is, well, a bias that most of us are not aware of.  There is an over-rating of "experts", and an under-rating of careful planning (by investment managers say) to avoid disasters that come along, especially among money managers.

    He discusses this range of topics from a probabilistic standpoint.

    I am only at Page 71 of re-reading this important book.  I needed to get back up to speed on these ideas...  Among topics I have read about today:

    -- all bubbles are pretty much the same.  A look back at history, along with some introspection and observation today suggest that we are in one (a BIG ONE) today

    -- old ideas are generally better than new ones...

    -- "Survivor Bias" makes the averages (eg Dow Jones Industrial Average) look better than it really is, the DJIA drops dying companies...

    -- Beware of experts and journalists...

    Many more not listed here.

    *   *   *

    I invite everyone to explore some of these ideas, perhaps along the lines of the Martin Armstrong thread.

    And, I urge those of you with interest in any of the above ideas to read his book! 


    Highly Recommended
Page 6
Viewing Page: 7